Back in 2010, when Nature magazine asked leading scientists to provide a ten-year forecast, Turchin used his models to predict that America was in a spiral of social disintegration that would lead to a breakdown in the political order circa 2020. The years since have proved his prediction more and more accurate, and End Times reveals why.
YMMV on the bolded statement.
Turchin argues: When the equilibrium between ruling elites and the majority tips too far in favor of elites, political instability is all but inevitable. As income inequality surges and prosperity flows disproportionately into the hands of the elites, the common people suffer, and society-wide efforts to become an elite grow ever more frenzied. He calls this process the wealth pump; it’s a world of the damned and the saved. And since the number of such positions remains relatively fixed, the overproduction of elites inevitably leads to frustrated elite aspirants, who harness popular resentment to turn against the established order. Turchin’s models show that when this state has been reached, societies become locked in a death spiral it’s very hard to exit.
In America, the wealth pump has been operating full blast for two generations. As cliodynamics shows us, our current cycle of elite overproduction and popular immiseration is far along the path to violent political rupture.
If Turchin is right the end is nigh. Certainly the US political process has been disrupted and is more volatile. There is a significant portion of the voting public believe that their economic plight has been ignored by establishment politicians. And the recent inflation has made their situation worse. It appears Powell has stemmed inflation but I don’t believe food costs will return to previous pricing. And salaries/wages raises have been reduced by reduced buying power.
Americans are disgruntled and depressed.
Americans do not appear to be happy that US corporate profits are at all time high. Likely because they don’t own any or very little stock.
My state’s [NM] governor has done her part to help the citizenry. $500 individual taxpayer rebates in 2002 & 2023. At least the NM voter believes the governor has an inkling of their difficulties. Or one could believe the NM governor is attempting to buy votes. She is eligible to run again in 2024 for re-election.