Can anyone shed light on the demographic population picture of whose leaving vs. those entering CA.
This topic comes up from time to time on this board, so I looked into it a while back. Turns out those immigrating to Califoria tend to be high income/high skilled, and those leaving tend to be low income/low skilled.
Which makes sense. California is expensive, so you’re not likely to move there unless you’ve got a good job.
https://www.ppic.org/blog/whos-leaving-california-and-whos-m…
“California needs an additional 1.8 million to 3.5 million homes to adequately house its population. The Department of Housing and Community Development called for the construction of 180,000 new units annually between 2015 and 2025 to close the gap. Instead, the state has averaged around 80,000 new units per year”
True, and if you take a quick look at my posts, you’ll see that I have said this over and over and over. Inflation is not the problem, the problem is supply. The Fed’s action curbing inflation will hurt those at the bottom most; unemployment, wage stagnation, loan rate putting first time buyers out of the market all to appease the Fed’s desire to cap wage inflation.
I have posted this before:
https://www.worldpropertyjournal.com/real-estate-news/united…
Rising home prices and interest rates are taking a terrible toll on housing affordability, with 87.5 million households – or roughly 69% of all U.S. households – unable to afford a new median-priced home.
"The housing affordability crisis is driven by one factor: as a nation, we have failed to produce enough housing to keep up with demand.
(National Association of Home Builders chairman Jerry Konter before the House Ways and Means Committee Hearing July 2022)
California has created affordable housing bills to help first time buyers. CalHFA offers several options for down payment; a 3.5% down payment allows first time buyers a chance to get into a house, but up to an amount of $856,600 with a 721 credit score. That comes with a big PMI, and the new loan rates that are double what they were from last year.
I have said over and over that the Fed’s current policy will create massive demand for rental properties and end the hope of home ownership.
Turns out those immigrating to Califoria tend to be high income/high skilled, and those leaving tend to be low income/low skilled.
Sort of, but not really. If nothing else, that division leaves out the middle income group. According to the IRS data I linked upthread, the average AGI (adjusted gross income) of those leaving in 2018-19 was $93K. Gross incomes would be larger. Here’s the distribution; low income would be the first two brackets.
AGI Percent
<$10K 6%
$10-25K 17%
$25-50K 25%
$50-75K 15%
$75-100K 10%
$100-200K 17%
>$200K 9%
DB2
Air quality was much more of a problem in the 60s and 70s, today California has the lowest carbon dioxide emissions per capita in the United States.
The problem today is that air quality has become a singular discussion centered around climate change and carbon dioxide emissions. Your post is a demonstration of that as it looks just at carbon dioxide emissions. Carbon dioxide isn’t even a pollutant at the time the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 were passed. It was added through a court decision. The criteria pollutants under the Act are ground level ozone, particulates, nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide, carbon monoxide and lead.
When it comes to California, they have some of the worst air in the country with regards to the criteria pollutants. Here is a map of the US.
https://www3.epa.gov/airquality/greenbook/mapnpoll.html
California may have NC beat on carbon dioxide emissions but we don’t have one nonattainment area in the state.
PSU
When it comes to California, they have some of the worst air in the country with regards to the criteria pollutants. Here is a map of the US.
Point well-taken.
I’m not sure of the date to your EPA map.
Current Carbon Monoxide in two cities (2022)
Raleigh-Durham, NC & Charlotte, NC (Moderate <= 12.7ppm - Maintenance)
Are rated the same as
San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose, CA (Moderate <= 12.7ppm - Maintenance)
https://www3.epa.gov/airquality/greenbook/cbtc.html
When measuring daily air quality for the week Winston-Salem rated poor (unhealthy to long exposure)
https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/winston-salem/27101/air-qu…
NC air quality poor
San Francisco Bay Area rated Fair
https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/san-francisco/94103/air-qu…
Southern California’s Great Basin region has always had air quality issues. California has led the nation in reducing auto emissions, you may remember that the previous administration to California to court to force the state to reduce standards.
California may have NC beat on carbon dioxide emissions but we don’t have one nonattainment area in the state.
I don’t know about those measurements, but I take your word for it. Again, back to the process of comparing ourselves to California. I don’t know why so many non-Californians are obsessed with how their state compares to California.
Point well-taken.
I’m not sure of the date to your EPA map.
Current Carbon Monoxide in two cities (2022)
Raleigh-Durham, NC & Charlotte, NC (Moderate <= 12.7ppm - Maintenance)
Are rated the same as
San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose, CA (Moderate <= 12.7ppm - Maintenance)
There have been no nonattainment areas for CO since 2010. I’m not sure why you are even highlighting this pollutant. The part that reads (moderate <=12.7 ppm - Maintenance) is the classification of the metropolitan area at the time of redesignation from nonattainment to attainment.
San Francisco Bay Area rated Fair
https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/san-francisco/94103/air-qu……
I don’t go to commercial sources of information that are just repackaging data from the entities that gathered the data. For any pollutant in NC, I would go to https://airquality.climate.ncsu.edu/air/
This website provides the real-time data from NC’s monitoring network run by their air quality agency.
For ozone, I know the person who developed the ozone design value predictor tool. This tool gathers the data from states across the nation to determine the attainment status of areas across the US. It’s a tool that has won national awards.
https://airquality.climate.ncsu.edu/dv/
I don’t know about those measurements, but I take your word for it.
Why do you even need to take my word for it even though I have 30 years of air quality engineering experience. Those numbers published by EPA are reported to EPA from each state. Each state has monitoring networks that have QAPPs approved by the EPA.
Again, back to the process of comparing ourselves to California. I don’t know why so many non-Californians are obsessed with how their state compares to California.
Now that is a funny statement. I was replying to you when you were comparing California to the rest of the country. I don’t know why so many Californians are obsessed with how their state compares to the other 49 states.
PSU
There have been no nonattainment areas for CO since 2010. I’m not sure why you are even highlighting this pollutant. The part that reads (moderate <=12.7 ppm - Maintenance) is the classification of the metropolitan area at the time of redesignation from nonattainment to attainment.
So, you’re saying that San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose, CA has also been redesignation from nonattainment to attainment? That’s confusing, but the EPA source that cites Raleigh-Durham, NC & Charlotte, NC (Moderate <= 12.7ppm - Maintenance)
Are rated the same as
San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose, CA (Moderate <= 12.7ppm - Maintenance)
Says… Data is current as of July 31, 2022
It clearly says… Status Nonattainment and Maintenance Areas
I was replying to you when you were comparing California to the rest of the country.
And… I was replying to the up-thread where DRB stated that California home prices create a great amount of car emissions due to the need to commute.
Look, not to get polemic about it, but this OP was about “Great California Exodus & the High Cost of Housing.” The comment was made that car emissions have greatly increased in California due to the high cost of housing.
If you read above, you’ll see that I was only try to explain that emission in ("The Great Basin Region especially) California for cars was far worse in the 70s when housing was affordable. I could care less how other states compare to California; I live in seven states.
Further, your EPA map seems to lack some credibility. for example, Gary In doesn’t show up in any of the map for air quality esp. sulfur dioxide. Have you been to Gary In? The EPA map shows that the air quality in Lake Tahoe is worse than Gary In.
And further, it’s interesting how all the air bad air quality immediately disappears right at the border of Nevada. Lake Tahoe somehow has a Level 3 Nonattainment, and Carson City-Genoa (20min away) is zero. Or, Imperial Valley is a serious all 6 pollutants (I assume a lot of this is Agriculture) and then right at the border of Nevada and Arizona it goes to zero when the prevailing air direction is West to East all most 100% of the time.
So, please understand, I think NC is a wonderful place; I’ve been to your Blue Ridge Mountains. I have a friend who just bought a place in Asheville, and wants me to come visit. I hear there are some great places for mountain biking. As for the EPA air quality information metrics today, I’d much rather be here at my place in Lake Tahoe than Gary, Indiana even though the EPA is telling me that Gary, Indiana is cleaner.
God Bless North Carolina and your many clean places.
On the other hand I would offer Texas severance pay if they got serious about seceding.
Is this the latest form of penis envy*?*
I thought this was the Macro Economic Trends and Risks Board.
low income would be the first two brackets.
By CA standards, low income is the first 5 brackets … or 73% of those leaving.
By CA standards, low income is the first 5 brackets … or 73% of those leaving.
Like saying, low batting average is the first bracket to get placed on waivers or moved out to another team?
TucsonBones writes,
By CA standards, low income is the first 5 brackets … or 73% of those leaving.
Like saying, low batting average is the first bracket to get placed on waivers or moved out to another team?
Exactly!
The less able people in California are moving to Texas. The superstars who can afford to live in California aren’t moving for the most part. No one is going to replace their Malibu home with the Galveston beachfront.
intercst
So, you’re saying that San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose, CA has also been redesignation from nonattainment to attainment? That’s confusing, but the EPA source that cites Raleigh-Durham, NC & Charlotte, NC (Moderate <= 12.7ppm - Maintenance)
Are rated the same as
San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose, CA (Moderate <= 12.7ppm - Maintenance)
Says… Data is current as of July 31, 2022
It clearly says… Status Nonattainment and Maintenance Areas
Maintenance areas are areas that were once in nonattainment and are now currently meeting the NAAQS for the pollutant in question. Under Section 175(a) of the CAA, the state needs to show the area will be meeting the NAAQS for a 10 year period. After 8 years, under Section 175(b) of the CAA, the state needs to model to show that the area will continue for another 10 years after the first 10 years ends. There are four types of designations - attainment, nonattainment, maintenance and unclassifiable/attainment.
Further, your EPA map seems to lack some credibility. for example, Gary In doesn’t show up in any of the map for air quality esp. sulfur dioxide. Have you been to Gary In? The EPA map shows that the air quality in Lake Tahoe is worse than Gary In.
And further, it’s interesting how all the air bad air quality immediately disappears right at the border of Nevada. Lake Tahoe somehow has a Level 3 Nonattainment, and Carson City-Genoa (20min away) is zero. Or, Imperial Valley is a serious all 6 pollutants (I assume a lot of this is Agriculture) and then right at the border of Nevada and Arizona it goes to zero when the prevailing air direction is West to East all most 100% of the time.
Attainment/nonattainment designations are done by metro statistical areas. All it takes is one monitor showing air levels above the NAAQS for the whole area to be designated nonattainment. Bad air quality doesn’t just disappear. Between the area that has a monitor showing levels above the NAAQS and the next nearby city or state, there has been enough dispersion so that the levels are not above the NAAQS. There are good models today that show how pollutants are transported by the winds.
So, please understand, I think NC is a wonderful place; I’ve been to your Blue Ridge Mountains. I have a friend who just bought a place in Asheville, and wants me to come visit. I hear there are some great places for mountain biking. As for the EPA air quality information metrics today, I’d much rather be here at my place in Lake Tahoe than Gary, Indiana even though the EPA is telling me that Gary, Indiana is cleaner.
The EPA is not telling you anything. They are just collecting the data reported by the 50 states. It is the states that run the monitoring networks. If you have a problem with the air quality information in Indiana, your beef is with Indiana, not EPA.
PSU