Figures taken from US Census. https://www.aei.org/carpe-diem/top-10-inbound-vs-top-10-outb… Based on 2020-2021 net domestic migration flows from the Census Bureau data, are there any significant differences between the top ten inbound and top ten outbound states when they are compared on a variety of measures of political party control, business climate, business and individual taxes, fiscal health, electricity and housing costs, economic performance and outlook, and labor market dynamism?
In my perusal of the chart I found that 1)taxation rates 2)electricity rates were lower in inflow states 3)current economic outlook 2021 were higher in inflow states. The average median home pricing & unemployment rate were lower in inflow states. Inflow States were overwhelmingly red while outflow States were overwhelmingly blue. Though that may change depending upon political beliefs on new residents. Will the inflow states remain as they are or evolve to become more like the outflow states? That has what occurred in my state of NM. It has moved more blue during my 40 years of residency. YMMV
Movement of Americans seem to be keyed toward moving for better economic situation.
Will the inflow states remain as they are or evolve to become more like the outflow states?
Depends on who is moving. Money, the richer, is mobile and the poor are usually stuck where they are at. So are the rich more or less red/blue? I have no idea but probably depends upon their profession.
Its a good reason to move to a state with a better debt situation.
I once tried to explain this to an Illinois friend. He simply did not believe it would ever happen, as he believed that god protects the innocent, somehow.
The latest AARP newsletter has a slightly different interpretation as they point out age and cost of living for people on fixed income as reason to move to NM, TX, and FL. Politics is not a primary reason but the cost of housing, personal taxes, other living expenses are.
If you are an older person and are on a fixed income you won’t care if the state is red, blue, or green striped as long as the living is cheap. So check the age demographics and see what you find.
The latest AARP newsletter has a slightly different interpretation as they point out age and cost of living for people on fixed income as reason to move to NM, TX, and FL. Politics is not a primary reason but the cost of housing, personal taxes, other living expenses are.
AS I stated in the OP:“Movement of Americans seem to be keyed toward moving for better economic situation.”
NM remains cheap in taxation & utility costs. However real estate has surged significantly along with the population in the 1980’s & 1990’s. The influx moderated during 2000-2009 & then dropped to be one of slowest growing states in the West during 2010 to 2020. Many in the working class have been priced out of the RE market due to flood of new folks, many who were retirees escaping higher priced states & cold weather.
AS I stated in the OP:“Movement of Americans seem to be keyed toward moving for better economic situation.”
And the same reason people want to move to the US from Guatemala, but not Norway. If the US persists in rejecting Guatemalans, while holding open a door for Norwegians, that no-one wants to use, we get a labor shortage in the US.
I would factor in the states debt load. New Jersey and Illinois have huge unfunded liability often for pensions promised. Eventually the bill will come due. Property owners, residents, and businesses are likely to pay the tab one way or another. Its a good reason to move to a state with a better debt situation.
I doubt a zillionth of a percent of people looking to move bother to look at a state’s “debt load.” They move because their job takes them there, or because they have family there, or they’re retiring and don’t want to shovel snow anymore.
I recently read a piece in BusinessWeek, I think, that demonstrated that the states with the highest outflows also happened to be (mostly) the states with the highest inflows. The numbers didn’t match exactly, obviously, because some states gained in toto while others lost. Interestingly (to me at least) was that West Virginia lost population through the past decade, but gained population last year. Why? Dunno.
A recent piece from the (anti-) Tax Foundation pointed out that of the Top 10 states that lost population, four had the highest cost of living. Hawaii, California, New York, and New Jersey, IIRC. Not really a surprise to me. And there’s a Bloomberg piece that demonstrates that there’s been a lot of movement, especially during the pandemic, but that the great majority of it is “nearby” as opposed to state-to-state. With many city workers able to work remotely now, many have decided to leave the urban and join the suburban (minus the commute) or even the ex-burban (ditto). https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2021-citylab-how-american…
And anecdotally I can say that virtually everyone who has moved out of state from out little neighborhood (60 homes) has gone to a higher cost state, most often to join family (grandkids rule, apparently). Several have moved within Tennessee, none that I can think of - and I get to keep the neighborhood roster for the HOA - have gone to lower cost states. Of course that’s not saying a lot since Tennessee is pretty near the bottom of the scale in that regard.
https://thefederalist.com/2021/06/01/new-poll-finds-all-thos…
The Texas Public Policy Foundation has conducted two polls of registered voters to test attitudes between natives and non-natives. Its January 2020 poll of 800 registered voters found native Texans supported President Trump over Hillary Clinton by a 7-point margin compared to transplants, who supported Trump by a 12-point margin.
Interestingly (to me at least) was that West Virginia lost population through the past decade, but gained population last year. Why? Dunno.
Ask John Denver.
PBS programs let us know those who live in West Virginia have a long tradition of family and friends living nearby.
Lack of job opportunities other than coal mining (and a few chemical plants) forces them to move out of state to find work. But that usually means coming back to WV for holidays, weekends, wedding and funerals, and all sorts of family events.
When the economy is strong people leave the state for work. But Covid, layoffs, early retirement, etc, give them reason to return.
Solely depending on your timeline moving to a low tax or low debt state can be a mistake.
If your life is still stretching out in front of you then the needs in the state as the state’s population increases will increase your tax burden and not necessarily your income.
It other words in finance what goes up must come down. Just not tomorrow, but maybe the day after.
The Texas Public Policy Foundation has conducted two polls of registered voters to test attitudes between natives and non-natives. Its January 2020 poll of 800 registered voters found native Texans supported President Trump over Hillary Clinton by a 7-point margin compared to transplants, who supported Trump by a 12-point margin.
This just proves that transplants to Texass like to go out and buy a bigger hat than anyone else in Texas would wear.
The Texas Public Policy Foundation has conducted two polls of registered voters to test attitudes between natives and non-natives. Its January 2020 poll of 800 registered voters found native Texans supported President Trump over Hillary Clinton by a 7-point margin compared to transplants, who supported Trump by a 12-point margin. — This just proves that transplants to Texass like to go out and buy a bigger hat than anyone else in Texas would wear.
I was thinking more along the lines of the posts I’ve read on The Fool denigrating Texas and of people posting they would never live there. You could probably think of a few on this very board.
Solely depending on your timeline moving to a low tax or low debt state can be a mistake. If your life is still stretching out in front of you then the needs in the state as the state’s population increases will increase your tax burden and not necessarily your income.
Which state you’re leaving and which state you’re moving to can make a huge difference.
I’d hate to be one of the last few taxpayers living in Illinois or any other state with massive public pension obligations and a shrinking tax base.
Illinois Will Be The Poster Case For State Bankruptcy
At this point, Illinois has no hope of its underfunded state pension programs ever returning to solvency… structural deficit, and its aging—and fleeing—population means that pension costs are going to continue to grow and outpace revenues… [I]ncome taxes will have to go up a lot and for everyone, sooner rather than later.
What a shame. Illinois has some very productive farmland and Chicago’s lakefront displays one of the great skylines of the world.
Maybe Illinois can copy Puerto Rico and figure out a way to make the state more friendly for wealthy and high-income folks. Some of the most robust business enterprises in history thrived in the Land of Lincoln during the 19th and 20th Centuries.
How Puerto Rico is turning into a cryptocurrency island with zero taxes
After a year of meteoric growth, investors are increasingly relocating to the island for its savings on individual and corporate taxes
At this point, Illinois has no hope of its underfunded state pension programs ever returning to solvency… structural deficit, and its aging—and fleeing—population means that pension costs are going to continue to grow and outpace revenues…
If you were self reliant instead of state reliant for your retirement years’ funding, you would not have that problem.
At this point, Illinois has no hope of its underfunded state pension programs ever returning to solvency… structural deficit, and its aging—and fleeing—population means that pension costs are going to continue to grow and outpace revenues… — If you were self reliant instead of state reliant for your retirement years’ funding, you would not have that problem.
The major problem is not with your retirement income – the state only finances the retirement funds of former and present state employees. The problem is that the state has to assign more and more of its funds to retirement programs, and everything else gets short shrift, whether it be roads or programs for the developmentally disabled.
