California exodus continues, with LA, San Francisco leading the way www.gazettextra.com/news/nation_world/california-exodus-cont…
An acceleration of people leaving coastal California began during the first year of the pandemic. But new data show it continued even after lockdowns and other COVID restrictions eased…San Francisco and Los Angeles rank first and second in the country, respectively, for outbound moves as the cost of living and housing prices continue to balloon and homeowners flee to less expensive cities…
Redfin chief economist Daryl Fairweather cited a June report that tracked the change in spending power of a homebuyer on a $2,500 monthly budget. While 11.2% of homes in Los Angeles were affordable on that budget, using a 3% interest rate, that amount swelled to about 72% in Houston and about 50% in Phoenix…
While California experienced a major population boom in the late 20th century — reaching 37 million people by 2000 — it’s been losing residents since, with new growth lagging behind the rest of the country, according to the Public Policy Institute of California. The state’s population increased by 5.8% from 2010 to 2020, below the national growth rate of 6.8%, and resulting in the loss of a congressional seat in 2021 for the first time in the state’s history.
Benjamin Franklin included a version of this proverb, preceded by the words, “A little neglect may breed great mischief,” in Poor Richard’s Almanack in 1758:
“For want of a nail, the shoe was lost. For want of a shoe, the horse was lost. For want of a horse, the rider was lost. For want of a rider, the battle was lost. For want of a battle, the kingdom was lost, And all for the want of a horseshoe nail.”
The same has been happening in New York. It came up 89 names short on the 2020 census and lost a representative:
As more social services are made available, taxes increase. As taxes increase, high tax-payers migrate to greener pastures. In order to balance the budget without cutting services, taxes increase, which forces more high tax-payers to migrate.
To those who “have” any “excess” social program over what’s needed to keep the peasants from rising up with their pitchforks is charity given out of the goodness of their hearts. If those programs are deemed too expensive, those paying the most taxes also have the most funds (and the greatest freedom of movement to other locals).
As taxes increase, high tax-payers migrate to greener pastures.
That’s part of it, but most studies point to the high cost of housing; there hasn’t been enough housing built in California to match population growth for decades. Because of that, it is mainly the middle class that is migrating out.
Last two years of data (in the aggregate) ranked by outflows between states:
California to Texas 7,554
California to Washington 5,600
Texas to California 4,100
Virginia to California 3,996
California to Florida 4,447
California to Virginia 3,890
Interesting pattern of large numbers of people moving to and from CA/TX and CA/VA. Would be interesting to examine the financials of those moving one direction vs the other.
California experienced a major population boom in the late 20th century — reaching 37 million people by 2000 — it’s been losing residents since
2010 to 2020, California’s population grew by 5.8% (or 2.4 million)…
First, get your facts straight.
Second, 352,000 residents out of 39 million is 0.9%. More people die in a month than the number of people leaving.
Third, if you don’t like California or you don’t know why you moved here, get the hell out. California doesn’t need a bunch of cry babies.
Fourth, wake me up when five million people leave California, because I’ve been hearing about the great California Exodus since the 70s.
I’ve been hearing about the great California Exodus since the 70s.
Same here. I was in Silicon Valley in the early 90s when I worked for Texas Instruments. We were visiting a company, Chips and Technologies, as it was selling off parts of itself on its way to no longer existing. One of the guys told me people are leaving California so much that one-way U-Haul rentals out-of-state are very expensive, because they have to ship back empty trailers/trucks as a result. Funny how the state is STILL the tech leader, still the most populous, still an agricultural power house, the list goes on.
The death of California has been grossly exaggerated for decades now.
Dear DB2,
Sorry. That was a touch rude, I read your quote out of context.
California bashing just gets old, it goes on all the time.
I really shouldn’t care
But same said, sorry to be rude.
This shortfall puts the middle class in a squeeze, forces people to live in more distant places, increases air pollution, increases racial and class inequity, makes it difficult for young people to get established et cetera.
And California has something else important, being "the place where it happens for all manner of tech, agro, media, arts…
My nephews can live whereever they want. One lives in Vermont because he adores the outdoors and skiing. The others all live in California, which in addition to all manner of other goodies (surf city, wines, healthy sexy population,…) provides a climate where people meet in bars after work to eagerly and excitedly talk about work. Think of that.
This shortfall puts the middle class in a squeeze, forces people to live in more distant places, increases air pollution, increases racial and class inequity, makes it difficult for young people to get established et cetera.
As far as “racial and class inequity,” that ship sailed long ago. In California, racial equality is more even than anywhere in the South. I read that Africa Americans in Oakland CA have highest median income in the United States.
Not able to verify that.
The high cost of living and taxes are the continuing problem.
I don’t like the taxes
My daughters have to work hard to keep up with the cost of living here, I don’t like either.
…but housing was well-above the national average my whole adult life, mortgage rates were 12%, it’s never been easy in California.
If people want to move to Texas, I understand that, and good for them.
The California that I experience is awesome, and I live all over the United States.
“California needs an additional 1.8 million to 3.5 million homes to adequately house its population. The Department of Housing and Community Development called for the construction of 180,000 new units annually between 2015 and 2025 to close the gap. Instead, the state has averaged around 80,000 new units per year”
“The consequences are devastating. California’s housing shortage has plunged many families into poverty that otherwise wouldn’t be. California’s poverty rate, at 11%, is on par with the national average when cost of living is not taken into consideration. When it is, California’s poverty rate skyrockets to 17.2% – the highest in the nation.”
“The housing crisis results in Californians living farther away from their jobs, resulting in longer commutes with more greenhouse gas emissions, and increased building in areas prone to wildfire and other natural disasters.”
“It has public health implications by forcing Californians to live in more crowded conditions and impacting the mental health of Californians vulnerable to losing their home. Further, housing insecurity contributes to feelings of hopelessness and social conflict.”
Lack of supply and rising costs are compounding growing inequality and limiting advancement opportunities for younger Californians.
Continued sprawl will decrease affordability and quality of life while increasing transportation costs.
Of California’s almost 6 million renter households, more than 3 million households, pay more than 30 percent of their income toward rent, and nearly 30% — more than 1.7 million households — pay more than 50% of their income toward rent.
Overall homeownership rates are at their lowest since the 1940s.
For California’s vulnerable populations, discrimination and inadequate accommodations for people with disabilities are worsening housing cost and affordability challenges.
Agree that small CA population decline vs. National Avg growth far from mass “exodus.” Agree to, CA has some of the best weather conditions in the World.
Can anyone shed light on the demographic population picture of whose leaving vs. those entering CA.
Can anyone shed light on the demographic population picture of whose leaving vs. those entering CA.
What little info I have on the subject suggests (but ONLY suggests - I’m claiming precisely zero scientific rigor here, folks!) that the people leaving look quite a lot like the people arriving.
When my sister was in her mid to late 20s, she and her then-husband spent several years in the San Diego area. They knew quite a number of people of similar age. Only one person they knew was a native Californian, and that person was trying to arrange a move to another state.
