The supply crunch did not happen in a vacuum. Years of extreme weather have scorched pastures and dried up water sources, forcing Ranchers to sell off animals they would normally keep.
Feed costs spike when drought hits grain regions, transportation becomes more expensive when fuel prices rise, and tariffs or export bans can suddenly divert shipments away from the United States.
Analysts who study the cattle cycle warn that rebuilding the national herd is a slow process measured in years, not months. In one widely cited assessment, Both Rempe and Peel, two agricultural economists, say prices are not likely to come down for a long time, despite attempts at intervention, and caution that tight supplies could persist for two to four years, a view laid out in the discussion where Both Rempe and Peel outline the likely timeline.
https://www.farmprogress.com/cattle-news/more-u-s-beef-pants-may-close-as-cattle-herds-keep-shrinking
American beef plants are under threat as the number of cattle destined for their facilities stays far below historical levels, reflecting the smallest herd in more than half a century.
https://www.beefmagazine.com/market-news/what-tyson-beef-plant-closure-means-for-cattle-producers
On Nov. 21, Tyson Foods announced it would permanently close its beef processing facility in Lexington, Nebraska, effective Jan. 20. The company also announced it would convert its Amarillo, Texas, facility to a single full-capacity shift. The Lexington plant employs roughly 3,200 people[1] and can slaughter almost 5,000 cattle per day, approximately 4.8% of total daily U.S. beef slaughter. This marks the first time one of the “Big Four” meatpacking companies has permanently closed a major plant during the current cattle supply crunch.
Beyond the Lexington closure, Tyson has been strategically reallocating assets with some investments going towards case-ready beef operations. The company invested $42 million to transform a closed facility in Columbia, South Carolina, into a case-ready operation and unveiled a $300 million case-ready facility in Eagle Mountain, Utah, that will increase case-ready capacity by nearly 24%.
So a shift from local butchers cutting up a side of beef to pre-packed product arriving ready for the cold shelf.
[1]Lexington, Nebraska - Wikipedia
The 2020 United States census[[12]]
(Lexington, Nebraska - Wikipedia) counted 10,348 people
The Union Pacific Overland Route does pass through town, and provides freight service for local grain elevators, ethanol, and meat packing plants.