Exxon confirmed anthropogenic global warming 30 years ago

Investment Analysis Clubs Macro Economic Trends and Risks
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Billion-dollar events to affect the United States from 1980 to 2023 (CPI-Adjusted). There were 363 events
from Southern Severe Storms and Flooding 4/17/1980
to Rockies Hail Storms and Central and Eastern Severe Weather 6/26/2023

We are about a third through the 2020s decade, and so I tripled costs-to-date for the projected 2020s decade. I divided the data into Tropical Cyclones and Other (Drought, Flooding, Freeze, Severe Storm, Wildfire, Winter Storm). Total costs for each decade:

                                              projected
      Cost        1980s  1990s  2000s  2010s    2020s
      Other        167    203    179    444      710
Tropical Cyclone    45    122    421    519      770
      Total        212    324    600    964     1479

data from https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/billions/state-summary/US

Many models show global warming has little effect on hurricane frequency or intensity.

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I’m not sure how or why this works. 0.01% are affected by disasters, and the other 99.99% also pay for the expenses. Why would that induce ~50% of voters to vote for those politicians? That is, any more than the opposing candidate?

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There was a sharp increase in non-hurricane disasters from the 2000s to the 2010s. A list of disasters with real costs more than $10B:

                     Event                          Date     Cost
   Missouri River and North Central Flooding     3/31/2019    13
    Western Wildfires, California Firestorm      12/31/2018   29
    Western Wildfires, California Firestorm      12/31/2017   23
              Louisiana Flooding                 8/15/2016    13
        Western/Plains Drought/Heat Wave         11/30/2013   14
            U.S. Drought/Heat Wave               12/31/2012   41
Southern Plains/Southwest Drought and Heat Wave  8/31/2011    17
          Midwest/Southeast Tornadoes            5/27/2011    12
    Southeast/Ohio Valley/Midwest Tornadoes      4/28/2011    14
 
                  U.S. Drought                   12/31/2008   10
                Midwest Flooding                 6/30/2008    14
                  U.S. Drought                   11/30/2002   16

The US population only increased about 10% over these 10 years (2005 to 2015). There were more fires and more flooding. Global warming is expected to increase fires, droughts, and flooding.

Scientists confirm global floods and droughts worsened by climate change, March 13, 2023
“The intensity of extreme drought and rainfall has “sharply” increased over the past 20 years, according to a study published Monday in the journal Nature Water… A warmer atmosphere increases the rate at which water evaporates during dry periods. It also holds more water vapor, which fuels heavy rainfall events. The study noted that infrastructure like airports and sewage treatment plants that were designed to withstand once-in-a-100-year events are becoming more challenged as these extremes happen more often and with more intensity.”

The paper summary is behind a paywall. $5 to rent for 48 hours. Can read the first page of the 2-page article for free.
Floods and droughts are intensifying globally, March 13, 2023
“Satellite data show hydroclimatic extreme events are increasing in frequency, duration, and extent under warming conditions. The frequency and intensity of hydroclimatic events, such as extreme precipitation and droughts, are increasing due to human-induced greenhouse gas emissions1. Under warming conditions, climate change manifests itself through water by intensifying the water cycle — exacerbating evaporative demands during dry events and increasing atmospheric moisture that fuels heavy precipitation. Extreme wet and dry events affect every continent across the globe, causing harm to human health, damage to infrastructure, economic losses, crop failure, ecosystem degradation, and triggering humanitarian crises such as food insecurity and conflict.”
https://www.nature.com/articles/s44221-023-00047-y

The paper is behind a paywall. $10 to rent for 48 hours. Can read the first page of the 7-page article for free.
Changing intensity of hydroclimatic extreme events revealed by GRACE and GRACE-FO, March 13, 2023
“Distortion of the water cycle, particularly of its extremes (droughts and pluvials), will be among the most conspicuous consequences of climate change… Floods and droughts account for more than 20% of the economic losses caused by extreme weather events in the United States each year, with droughts ranked second following tropical cyclones among all major disasters”
https://www.nature.com/articles/s44221-023-00040-5

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You don’t need to get 50%. Just a few percent.
And just because you aren’t directly affected doesn’t mean it doesn’t sway you…your home might be next.
Imagine how quickly sentiment changes if a politician said, sorry no funds for you, build somewhere else.

Mike

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Wolfgang Kron of Munich Re insurance is the lead author of a paper entitled “Changes in risk of extreme weather events in Europe”. The article includes the figure below:

image
image1920×870 89.6 KB

As can be seen, when adjusted for inflation and GDP growth (value at risk) there is no significant trend since 1980.

DB2

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Merchants of Doubt has been a continuing capitalist story for a long time.
Radium in watches
Lead in gasoline
Tobacco
Downwind fallout

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