Semi OT: Climate change attitude poll

Hmmm.

Findings from a 2023 Survey of Adults Age 18 and Older

Question: Do you think climate change is caused entirely by human activities, caused mostly by human activities, caused about equally by human activities and natural changes in the environment, caused mostly by natural changes in the environment, or caused entirely by natural changes in the environment?

Percentage of adults who believe climate change is happening and say it is caused mostly or entirely by human activities.

         2018   2023
Overall   60%    49%
Dem       72     60
Indep     61     42
Rep       33     33

DB2

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The propaganda has worked remarkably well but is fading.

The Captain

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Can you or anyone show that this survey is a random/representative sample of adults age 18 and older?

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Whatever the propaganda, the results seem consistent across the years.

Here ya go:

This survey was conducted by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, with funding from The Energy Policy Institute at the University of Chicago (EPIC). Staff from NORC at the University of Chicago, The Associated Press, and EPIC collaborated on all aspects of the study.

Data were collected using both probability and non-probability sample sources. Interviews for this survey were conducted between January 31 - February 15, 2023, with adults age 18 and over representing the 50 states and the District of Columbia. The probability sample source is AmeriSpeak®, NORC’s probability-based panel designed to be representative of the U.S. household population…

Dynata provided 3,346 non-probability interviews with adults age 18 and over. The Dynata sample was derived based on quotas related to age, race and ethnicity, gender, and education…

Once the sample has been selected and fielded, and all the study data have been collected and made final, a raking process is used to adjust for any survey nonresponse as well as any noncoverage or under and oversampling in both probability and non-probability samples resulting from the study specific sample design. Raking variables for both the probability and nonprobability samples included age, gender, census region, race/ethnicity, and education. Population control totals for the raking variables were obtained from the 2022 Current Population Survey. The weighted data reflect the U.S. population of people age 18 and over.

DB2

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Are opinion polls reliable?

Lessons put to practical application.

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chuckle From the same site late last year.

Just goes to show that opinion is very fickle. 62% of all those surveyed (67% of Indies, 39% or Reps) say the government isn’t doing enough to combat climate change.

Overall, 74% acknowledge that climate change is happening.

So, basically people think it is happening and that government should do something to fix it but also think it is most likely caused by nature. :crazy_face:

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Taken over periods of time with consistent methods, yes.

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@DrBob2
Thank you, these sections indicate that the sampling process is indeed not random.

And I don’t see any part which shows that the data are a random sample.
(or please direct me to the specific part that shows this, if it exists and you can find it, I don’t see it)

What I do see is a lot of effort to adjust the data to try to obtain a random sample, for example the sections I show above, with some parts bolded.

I am not saying surveys such as these do not have value, but obtaining a true random sample is not easy. We can see this challenge in polls that try to estimate election results, except in the election case we can measure the actual population polling outcome on election day and compare that to earlier poll results - which is how we know earlier polls are not capturing a random sample with respect to election day outcomes.

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The survey results show nothing of the sorts. I could be that. It could equally be that the science was taking hold in the public mind but some new propaganda has been taking hold to sway people to an erroneous opinion. All this survey says is “opinions are changing”.

I’m more interested in the science of what is happening and less in what the public believes in.

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This shows how well fossil fuel companies and FOX news have done at brain washing the conservative population.

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Science does not vote, the public does.

The Captain

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True. Climate science is not the same as climate policy.

DB2

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Exactly!!! !!! !!! !!! !! !

The Captain

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Our research data from May 2023 show that the social image of the climate movement has recently changed noticeably…

In our current quantitative survey from May 9 to 24, 2023, we therefore collaborated again with the opinion research institute Kantar Public to ask a total of 2,016 people aged 18 and over (via a sociodemographically quota-based online panel survey) how they view the climate movement today…

The general willingness to support climate activists has de facto halved since 2021, from 68 to 34 percent. It is also striking that agreement with the statement “The climate and environmental movement in Germany has the good of society as a whole in mind” has plummeted from 60 to 25 percent. Many people who two years ago still considered the climate movement to be beneficial to society as a whole apparently no longer do so…

What is striking here is that these losses are distributed quite symmetrically across all of our six social types. This means that climate activists are currently suffering reputational losses not only in certain segments of society, but in all of them

DB2

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image

Bob,

You are really stretching to avoid what is in the report. Namely this first page of the link.

NASA has a projection of another 2.7 inches of sea level rise by 2040. Meanwhile Dublin was told much of it will be under water by 2030. That sort of thing has people taking it easy. The fearmongers are overdoing it because it can all get very out of hand if we do not change and NOW! It does not have to be just 2.7 inches.

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Agreed.

Mike Hulme on the “Climatism” Crisis
https://www.earth.columbia.edu/videos/view/mike-hulme-on-the-climatism-crisis
Mike Hulme, a University of Cambridge geographer and longtime researcher focused on the human relationship to climate, worries that the idea of climate change might be more dangerous than the geophysical phenomenon itself.

DB2

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You are being selective. I agree but that does not mean we know fully how out of hand this can get.

From Germany:

From the UK:

‘I’ve knocked on hundreds, literally thousands of doors, and had tens of thousands of conversations with voters… and I just don’t have conversations about climate change.’

So said an anonymous MP, despairing at the British public’s lack of interest in climate change. He was quoted in a 2018 report) by the environmental think-tank, the Green Alliance. The findings were stark. Ten years after the UK had passed the Climate Change Act, which commits the British government to stringent, legally binding decarbonisation targets, there was no sign of any public enthusiasm for climate policy. Politicians across the political spectrum were all in agreement that draconian measures should be taken to mitigate global warming. But they had not brought the electorate along with them. ‘For the overwhelming majority of people’, the report warned, ‘climate change is a non-issue’.

Fast forward five years to today and the public is finally starting to make its voice heard on the climate. Except not in the way our green-leaning establishment had hoped. Rather than clamouring for further climate action, voters are starting to bristle at the burdens of Net Zero.

DB2

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In other words we want majority rule unless the majority does not share our opinion then we wont consider it democracy. The crybaby clickbait headlines.

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The job of leaders is to, well, lead. It’s nice when you can lead people places they want to go, but sometimes you have to lead people where they don’t really want to be. You have to tell them things they don’t want to hear and convince then to do things which are good for society but come at a personal cost to the individual.

Anthropomorphic climate change is one of those places. People in general don’t want to think about the effect of human activity on climate. They want to stay fat, dumb, and happy doing what they’ve always done. So the fact that this anonymous MP didn’t hear people talking about climate change is as much his fault as theirs. He failed to lead.

I suspect that 50 to 100 years from now, our grandchildren and great-grandchildren will look back on this time in wonder at our inaction on climate and our failure to consider the future. Historians will debate whether this was from selfishness or laziness or ignorance. In the moment, I see bit of all three at work.

–Peter

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