Just bought a 10% holding. Too good to miss! I only had a toe in the water before.
geez louise, that’s a big commitment. as someone with still only one toe in the water, i’m curious to know how you got so confident that fb’s problems, mentioned in this thread (Apple privacy restrictions, youth going to other platforms, tiktok, legislative threats, metaverse money thrown out the window, to name a few) are likely to be transient?
dtb
geez louise, that’s a big commitment. as someone with still only one toe in the water, i’m curious to know how you got so confident that fb’s problems, mentioned in this thread (Apple privacy restrictions, youth going to other platforms, tiktok, legislative threats, metaverse money thrown out the window, to name a few) are likely to be transient?
I am accumulating.
My reason is Zuck will figure this out. No need to over analyze. He is still young and created a ~$650B company out of nothing.
F in FAANG and owner run.
They have global reach, top talent and ~$10B cash gushing in every quarter.
* Should acquire ZM ($42B) to get instant enterprise market for their meta solution.
div you’re pretty dramatic in all your beliefs. Old dealraker suggests consideration in thought that many of the big cap stocks can easily (yes they’ll be the last to join the exit parade) fall 50% in the next downturn particularly if interest rates go up. And the entire world thinks the cloud businesses will never experience such. That’s the kind of belief I love to see.
Like I say I’ve got family in the builders supply business and millwork business. They are so smart in that they never expand too much during the upswings. They take the profits and hold them till the stock market corrects as they know cycles from well over 100 years of being in this business.
They once had 6 builders supplies, now one that focuses on contractors. The millwork serves the southeast and is a bigger business. They have a multiple million stock portfolio instead of multiple locations.
They are voicing various concerns as to both wholesale supply and pricing along with demand easing. A very interesting combo.
Old dealraker manages some, actually most, of their money. He suggested to them to either consider selling some Lowe’s (they have millions) or being prepared for at least a year or two of a $120 price instead of a $230-$280 price. Life is great if you can stand it.
Lowe’s routinely sells for 16-18 times depressed earnings in the downturns.
I like numbers, valuation and growth prospects and have a long term outlook. Simple as that really.
div you’re pretty dramatic in all your beliefs.
Works for me.
I bought my first FB shares right after the IPO when it dropped by 50%.
Now that I’ve stated my neutral to negative Meta opinion I’ll do what is not at all uncommon for me. Monday I’m buying more Facebook. I do this sort of thing because often I am wrong.
Life is great if you can stand it.
Life is great if you can stand it.
But growing old is not for sissies… .
But growing old is not for sissies… .
Neither is being a kid. If given the opportunity to return to my teens and 20’s, there is no way I would accept.
IP,
who feels the good life began at 30
This will probably be long; I’m thinking with my fingers and hop-scotch responding at the same time, not usually a good way to post. But first, as they say…
I’ll start with this interesting columns from today’s WaPo, which chides FB for building their business on someone else’s land.
**For years, Facebook has been teaching that lesson to businesses that built their strategies around the platform. And now Facebook is itself getting schooled,…**
**Meta, Facebook’s parent company, just had a truly horrific earnings call. The platform lost roughly half a million users in the fourth quarter of 2021, the first time its user base has declined in the company’s history. [edit] …**
**But Facebook’s problem on the revenue side is, if anything, bigger. Over the past decade, Facebook has had an enormous competitive advantage in the ad market, because of its huge reach — … — and its ability to precisely target advertising to those users. Alas, recent changes to Apple’s IOS have made it a lot more difficult for companies like Facebook to track the activities of their mobile users.**
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/02/04/meta-valu…
Ironically it was Zuckerberg who led the “all hands” effort to move Facebook from browsers to mobile, a success story if there ever was one, right up until Apple decided it didn’t like the privacy issues that kept cropping up.
(In my view this Apple move will affect Facebook dramatically and Google only somewhat. Facebook is almost completely dependent on data scraping for both its content feed but more importantly for its advertising platform. Google has some of the same vulnerabilities but 1) Android, and perhaps even more important, direct search. They don’t need to find out somewhere else you’re looking for a dog collar, you type “dog collar” directly into their bowels. YouTube will be affected, and their ad platform for other sites but those are nowhere near as important to Google as metadata is to Facebook.
My reason is Zuck will figure this out. No need to over analyze. He is still young and created a ~$650B company out of nothing.
Maybe. Apple announced its change last April, Zuck announced Meta in the Fall. Apple says 96% of iPhone users are opting out, more than twice what Facebook projected would happen (40%). (And recall that Apple iOS changes are pushed out hand happen far more quickly than Android, or Microsoft for that matter.) Did they not see the business cratering? Did he not tell someone “stop the buybacks”? Did he not round up the troops for this possibly existential threat? Did he belatedly see that TikTok was gathering steam?
OK, I admit to bias because I think he’s a schmuck. It didn’t stop me from buying a slug after the IPO sank. I’ve watched it grow with amazement ever since, and watched the revenue number eclipse even the Big 3 Television Networks with awe. (And am amazed that so little of my news feed has anything but hinky advertisers in it hawking gutter guards or cord clips or some kind of LED light string that changes colors! There’s not a Budweiser or Procter & Gamble in sight, but maybe Zuck knows more about me than I do.) Or maybe the sales effort is just, um, too much effort?
I am thinking that Mark has found himself king of the world and is infatuated with Meta (which vision I happily admit I do not see) and can’t be bothered with the easy billions that Facebook is no longer gathering. And it’s not just revenue, it’s users too - but I don’t think that was the revenue driver this quarter. Audience always precedes revenue, both on the way up and on the way down. If FB’s user loss is real the next quarter could be even worse.
FWIW, you could have had Google a few months ago at a 20% discount (I did), or Amazon a few days ago for a lot less (I did that, too) so there are still tech plays at play. I lost a ton last week but managed to recoup mostly elsewhere. Lucky me! Apple scares the bejesus out of me, perhaps because I think I’m the only person in America who managed to lose money on it. Once burned, and all that.
I have no doubt that the FB moat continues to exist, but perhaps the rocket ship ride is over - and I’m rethinking my $17 Facebook in a new light. Sadly it’s in a taxable account, but oh.well.
(I also put “regulatory risk” as a real threat, I don’t think FB or MZ are very popular in Washington.)
Meanwhile my BRK just keeps chugging along. I expect it will get hit by a downdraft at some point too, but nothing on the scale of this. $200B in one day. Well, that seems an overreaction, but maybe not?
Maybe it’s the story of the jackass and the 2x4. Maybe it’ll do some good. I’m hoping that between the Apple lesson and the Joe Rogan/Spotify kerfuffle and Bezos’ leaden footsteps lately that sites will start to realize they have responsibilities along with their gargantuan profits. Ah, a guy can dream, anyway.
As a Facebook/Meta shareholder one thing that truly stands out is Zuck has been an excellent capital allocator. Now we are in the meta/buyback spend era where so far a bunch of billions are out there somewhere with many more billions to follow. The outcome? It will be exciting and very likely not something anyone can predict and may just be random luck or not.
Rather than buybacks, i’d prefer the Tencent model of minority stakes in other companies. Given a dependency on advertising this would add a second string to the business.
I believe Metaverse is real, a new paradigm that will shake many fields. The technologies are ready, but it’s in the very early stage, similar to wireless communication a few decades ago when the cellphone was as big as a brick and the quality was poor, just like the 3D goggles today.
Rather than buybacks, i’d prefer the Tencent model of minority stakes in other companies.
Somewhat similar. FB made a $5 or $6B investment in Indian mobile phone platform, it is a tie-up to use whatzapp for mobile payment or something like that. If you are looking investments similar to Berkshire, I doubt it. These companies want complete control or very specific strategic investment. In the above case, I believe it allowed FB an entry into Indian mobile market, access to data etc.
That’s really interesting. Yes I was kinda thinking more of strategic investments. Tencent is focussed on technology and digital.
Luckily I was at the vet all morning. Meta? Time to watch the game, not play.
Chomp you’re quite the flip- flopper on FB!
Ha! Blackswanny I just read some more on FB that I thought was current…but wasn’t. I’m not too flip on FB…I just don’t know my ass from a hole in the groud on FB!
Now THAT’S the truth. I actually bought what was for me a big amount of FB through the last few years. I’m just not going to buy any more for now.
Chompin, digging up some of your Meta-thoughts, here’s what’s maybe confusing:
You, Sunday evening:
Now that I’ve stated my neutral to negative Meta opinion I’ll do what is not at all uncommon for me. Monday I’m buying more Facebook. I do this sort of thing because often I am wrong.
You again, Monday afternoon:
Luckily I was at the vet all morning. Meta? Time to watch the game, not play.
blackswanny, Monday afternoon:
Chomp you’re quite the flip- flopper on FB!
You again:
I actually bought what was for me a big amount of FB through the last few years. I’m just not going to buy any more for now.
You also said, a few days ago, that you bought more “at the IPO and more at $13, then some at $157, then more at $300 just a few days ago.” I suspect that the $13 is a slight exaggeration, since it I don’t think the share price ever got quite that low), but the point is, you have been pretty consistently a buyer at very different prices". You have said in the past year that you have some doubts about the business (“Now that I’ve stated my neutral to negative Meta opinion”), but on other occasions, you have said that it is a great business (“in my view during my life of over 70 years I’ve never seen more dominant sustainable businesses than GOOG and FB. I am not “active” personally on FB, but my wife and I use it endlessly for access to events, businesses, and groups. Instagram? In my view, a wonderful thing.”
One might think that at today’s price ($222 as I write, which is the January 2020 price, when they were making less than half the net income, and had 3% more shares. So if it’s not a great deal now, you must become quite concerned, while you were at the vet’s, about one of the problems. Is there something in the earnings report that makes you particularly worried, or did all that dog barking get to you?
Regards, DTB
DTB that’s pretty cute. As I have said repeatedly dude I have thought FB was one of the most dominant businesses I have ever seen. Will it last? Different story.
If you are willing to spend so much time disecting someone’s views, which do change and that isn’t a weakness, then you may need a lifestyle change.
Life is great if you can stand it. I rarely sell or buy…and often when I do I am so DAMN wrong it spins my head around in circles.
That said, if I am not mistaken, my net worth is about 300 times what is was when I was 21. Remember it is div20 who repeately claims he buys at the bottome.
Dude I never buy at the bottom and I rarely get it right. But I do succeed.
“DTB that’s pretty cute.”
There was nothing cute about the post. The poster was trying to understand your position. Rather than simply clarifying your previous posts you chose to go the route of communicating an adolescent attack with a dash of unresponsive rambling.
jk