Fed Chair Powell: Stagflation ahead

https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/powell-is-cautious-about-feds-ability-to-pre-empt-tariff-related-weakness-8f4ea3a3?mod=WSJ_home_supertoppermiddle_pos_4

Powell Warns of Higher Prices, Weaker Growth After Tariff Plan

Fed chief says tariff hikes—and the likely effects on prices and growth—are ‘significantly larger than expected’

By Nick Timiraos, The Wall Street Journal, Updated April 4, 2025

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the U.S. economy was likely to face a period of higher prices and weaker growth than seemed possible a few weeks ago because of larger-than-anticipated tariff hikes announced by President Trump.

His remarks carried an undercurrent of caution about how the central bank would be able to address any fallout because the central bank will want to ensure one-time price increases don’t lead to persistently higher inflation.

In remarks prepared for delivery Friday, Powell indicated the central bank was still comfortable with its wait-and-see stance and that it was focused above all on ensuring the public expected price growth to slow down after any increases to tariffs

By focusing on inflation in his remarks, Powell underscored how officials believe they have less ability to pre-empt economic weakness caused by the tariffs. That means their attention could turn to how to cushion the blow from any increase in unemployment and slowdown in spending only after it occurs. In other words, the Fed would be responsive to any weakness but less able to pre-empt such weakness… [end quote]

This is a clear warning to the markets: Don’t front-run the Fed the way you did several times before. It won’t end well because the Fed will stick to its guns. The Fed’s job is to prevent inflation expectations from becoming entrenched. They will not cut the fed funds rate to try to stimulate a slowing economy.

Markets can crash overnight but economies take longer to respond. This will be a slow process.

Wendy

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He also said data continue to indicate the US economy is strong. But who knows how that might change. The fed is watching the data closely but sees no reason to hurry.

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I need help understanding this. “don’t front-run the Fed” means… what should I not be doing? (or what should I be doing?)

Related, is anyone worried about the stability of money market funds? Because I am considering making a ladder of 1, 2 and 3 month Treasuries with a bit portion of my money market holdings. My gut is, short term Treasuries offer superior risk avoidance than even a money market right now. Thoughts?

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Dont bet on a rate decrease like the bond market is today. Future markets are predicting 5 decreases and absent a significant recession, that seems unlikely.

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Usually, and I tend to agree, but when he cuts taxes and the bond market collapses…then when he frees Freddy and Sally…and the housing market collapses…only slowed by his ballpoint pen.

When the market bets that the Fed will cut the fed funds rate in the future it is “front-running the Fed.” The market has done this at least 4 times since the beginning of 2022, bidding up stock prices only to be disappointed later.

Wendy

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I agree with you, @Hawkwin . This is what I meant by “front-running the Fed.”

Wendy

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