Fed Minutes Now Predict a Recession This Year Along With Higher Unemployment


Mish list 12 key take aways.
His source:is Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee for March 21–22, 2023.:


Let’s Discuss the Rolling Recession Idea and How Long It Might Last

“We are already in a recession,” says Charles Schwab Chief Investment Strategist Liz Ann Sonders. “It’s just of a rolling variety.”

Perhaps it is past time for there to be a more official definition and declaration of what a recession is. Much of this stems from the idea that we largely let the NBER declare when a recession begins and ends, and the criteria they use is rather subjective…

I expect the opposite of the Covid-recession: A long period of weak growth accompanied by relatively strong unemployment numbers.

If we are growing, is it really a recession? If so, then how much growth does the economy need to maintain to not be declared in a recession?

As I have stated to people in person, if the economy is still (slowly) growing, and pretty much everyone that wants a job has one (~4.5% unemployment), does it really matter whether or not NBER declares a recession? 'Cause it really won’t feel like one.

As Mish states, it might be little more than an “academic exercise” if so.

Regarding their recession comment, it is interesting to note how the language has changed since February where the minutes stated:

While most Desk survey respondents expected subdued growth or a mild recession in 2023…
and the staff still viewed the possibility of a recession sometime this year as a plausible alternative to the baseline…
al­though some participants noted that the probability of the economy entering a recession in 2023 remained elevated…

Maybe I am sheltered, I don’t know. But I honestly don’t understand why so many people feel the economy is in bad shape right now. I don’t buy it.


I think perhaps because corporate earnings are pressured along with some asset prices (bank stocks, commercial real estate, over investment in some tech companies). On the other hand, unemployment is not high.

So capital is feeling some pain (and by extension the financial press and related crowd), but labor maybe less so.

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It is playing to the boomers. They are crying in their beers. Since they have the lions share of the retail investments 2022 and 2023 are really cutting them. The jokes at the club house bar were all money and being cheaper tonight. Looking and bills to sign for the drinks and you could see people wondering how they spend so much.

bj your generation has better jobs and pay right now.

The boomers are not going to earn more. Most of them are barely amateur investors. Most really never had enough to retire.

The news is shaking them free of their investments towards the bottom.

Probably has much to do with the media they are consuming.