Recession or NO, If YES, WHEN?

Here is the best reasoned professional up to date discussion that has impressed me (sorry NYT pay barrier)

Additionally, the politcal powers now in opposition to the Prez want a recession as we come into 2024, and can go a long ways to forcing one to occur.

I think we need to discuss this – carefully regarding political passions. It is central to investing over the next two years.

D fb


I need a recession. I have too much work, too much cash and toys are too expensive.

Some politician got raked over the coals for saying unemployment needed to go up 50 percent to 5 percent. He was correct. We have people in the work force that it would be cheaper to pay them to stay at home and pet their cat.

The money we are losing through fatigue stupidity and planning inefficiency is staggering. Mal investment always leads to economic down turns. It doesn’t really matter if banksters do it, urban cowboys do it, or governments do it. The result is always the same.

At some point it is like waking up with food poisoning, might as well get up and sell a Buick to the porcelain god.



Man, I can’t marvel enough at the self-serving privilege displayed in this comment. A few million people need to lose their jobs so you can get cheaper toys.



The “JC” would be happy to solve your “too much cash” problem, by keeping more money for himself. Feel better now?

That would be socolistical. Can’t do that. Two options: make them “learn the dignity of work”, probably by watching you shoulder their work, on top of your own, or watch them starve by the roadside.

That was the MO of most of the places I worked.


Not a word of it is true anyway. Regardless of the ‘toys’.

We get a mild recession starting now. Or close to now. It is not about labor. The old dogs here cut their teeth on labor costs equal to inflation. That is not true at this point. It was only true into 1990 anyway.

This is about asset values. That opens up opportunities for all of us with some cash.

Holiday sales are likely to be down this year. Seasonal hiring lower than last year. But the worst numbers are usually first quarter. So I expect recession after earnings are announced next April.

By that time consumer spending is likely to be dipping quite a bit–having run up credit cards and spent reserves. And will we see we unemployment rising by then?


Recession in an election year is very unusual. What can the Biden administration do to extend the numbers until after the election?

1 Like

By the time the primaries are over this recession is likely to be completed.

The factory buildout began in 2021. It’s fruits will be present.

Either way, I do not think Biden will be running. I think he will drop out in January or February. He is waiting until he is officially a lame duck. Until then he is trying to get some work done.


Over the weekend TV news was that Biden has been promoting all he has done to improve the economy with bills passed. But surveys indicate voters are not buying in. Instead of low unemployment they see inflation and rising prices for food and gas.

1 Like

Many of us are apparently “glass half empty” types. That, and failure to see cause and effect coupled with innumeracy, of course.



I don’t care about recessions. Bear markets screw up my covered call strategy. The past couple of months have not been pretty.

The Captain


Here is a short article about inverted yield curve and its predictability.

If you follow the 3 month vs 10 year, it is 8 for 8 since 1968. The original 2 year vs 10 year only missed the 1960 recession. Couldn’t find an article talking about lag time but IIRC, usually a 12-18 month lag. And again, depends on which inversion rules you follow.

I vote yes to a recession and probably starts in the January to April time frame if either of these predictors continue to hold true.

I just came off off 20 hours of overtime driven by a construction crew that was under trained, inexperienced and unsupervised.

Worse, we will spend another 120 MMH to find out just how extensive the damage really is. Then we will get to spend months putting together a project to fix everything. I am seeing this across industries and levels of training from unskilled labor to professional service. The old rule of thumb that 5 percent unemployment is full employment seem accurate from where I stand.

Worse I see stupid money chasing every product every where. Bidding against stupid money is always a bad idea. Again this reminds me of Houston in the 1970’s where the oil workers literally urinated away massive amounts of wealth. It does not matter if oil workers place capital in the toilet or executives toss it out the door while flying Lolita airways. The result is always the same.

Every day this situation lasts, more capital is miss allocated and the more is miss allocated the worse the correction will be.

So yes I am tired, and if they can cut my overtime or announce a lay off, I will take our contractual voluntary severance to save young folks jobs. However, I am probably not senior enough to get it.



I kept my mouth shut about two months ago when I saw during this period your first major post on options. I figured just avoid that.

1 Like

Inflation hurts everyone, which is why it is the Fed’s primary focus (even at the cost of a slower economy and fewer jobs).



What inflation? The inflation is minor at this point.

But it nosed out a bit.

The wealth effect was not earned. The FED is mopping up the prior loose monetary policies.


I been selling Covered Calls n Cash Secured Puts since March. The proceeds have paid for some extras at home, and while traveling.
Some of the extra $ GREATLY decreased some travel stressors.

When I don’t have to worry about time, and there’s enough $ to cover the costs, I do the :watermelon: crawl.



I place my over/under bet on November being month that majority admits to recession being underway and accelerating.

And if everyone believes that around Thanksgiving, what does the capital gains situation look like going into December?

I see a lot of loss harvesting and wealth protection leading to equities collapse ala dec 2018. Rate cuts will come earlier than expected as things “start to break”.

If not that, then i guess YOLO/MOMO/FOMO to SPY 5000 and set up for a 2024 collapse that Dems are powerless to prevent.

You cant shut down, do massive QE, give stimmy funds like candy, and have market surge…eventually the bill comes due.

Some think that was what 2022 was, and things should go right back to valuation-doesnt-matter as mid-2023 hinted.

Feels more like a delayed reaction to a kidney punch.



  1. Continue pushing money through key industries and keep employment up.
  2. Figure out how to lower the cost of energy, short term. (Long term would be nice, but you asked about “election.”)
  3. Jawbone the Fed into standing down and modestly lowering interest rates.

The Dems already have prevented a collapse. The monies in 2022 for the factory buildout will be creating a very bullish economy.

Putting down the inflation now is just on time.

The mild recession leads to less consumption of oil.

Russia is not really cutting its production. SA knows this. Opec will want some of the money at this point.

The Western Cartel is not enforcing prices as much to China and India. This will speed up China’s demise.

XOM has become a bad place to be. Most of the recession will for decades just focus on XOM. LOL

As for our recession currently forming, we will be okay after April next year or thereabouts.