The Fight or Flee Index - more commonly known as the Fear and Greed Index, is currently depicting more Flee than Fight. At least that’s how I read it - but to be honest, that’s not helping a great deal just now. Here’s why:
There are a number of companies I am either invested in or simply interested in that will be reporting next week. To be perfectly transparent and oddly enough, I am not as worried about those companies that I am simply interested in when compared to those companies in which I have significant piles of dollar bills on the line, which seems relatively normal to me.
Now…if I were a pure LTBH devotee, this weeks reports would make no difference to me - I’d just ride the roller coaster up or down, or as fate might have it, down then up later or maybe up then down later - whatever. But I stopped being a LTBH purist some time ago when it occurred to me that the all-to-regular market gyrations afford the nimble hearted some intermediary areas whereby - just like going to the Free Throw line - an investing team can add some incidental performance percentage points to its total score in the very midst of semi-firm commitment to longer term High Confidence positions. But now have shifted my investing philosophy to this accordingly: While it may be impossible to time the markets its entirely within normal probabilities to allow the market to time itself, which is to say, within the context of general daily movements of a handful of highly tracked companies opportunities may abound. which leads me to the actual reason for this post.
This coming week several of the companies I actually have invested in are reporting. MELI - which I just added and then doubled down on this past week in anticipation of a short term Free Throw style gain - reports After the Close on Feb 22. Now lately…in accordance with the harsh sell off in Growth, and much more so the companies that don’t satisfy the investing gods with WOW ERs - things can get a little dicey…just a little dicey if you know what I mean. (For validation look no further than what happened to poor little AMPL albeit a minor Growth darling.) Then on the 24th DOCN reports Before the Open while ZS reports After the Close.
Special Note: I am immensely more attuned to how MELI and ZS report due to large invests therein and much less so on DOCN.
So Fight or Flee? Since MELI has already been savaged by sympathy pains from SHOP’s recent report I am inclined to think that the way further south may be limited regardless of what MELI reports - which admittedly is nothing more than whistling past the grave yard. Be that as it may, I am banking on a strong holiday season to bolster MELI’s results. No guarantees but much too late to effectively withdraw anyway so I am stuck with the result.
Raising the stakes - MNDY is sandwiched between MELI and ZS, reporting before the market opens on Wednesday Feb 23. Thus - I have two STARTERS and one fatted calf Tweener (MELI) - all reporting within a span of three days next week. Which by my moderately reliable math skills places almost 38% of the portfolio on-the-line next week. Shoulda thunk of that before I rallied so much into MELI.
So there it is - potential for trouble in paradise of a sorts while nonetheless exhilarating and almost terrifying at the same time. So Fight or Flee?
The Flee train has left the station: there is only Fight and/or Hunker Down with the only question: is the roster Napoleon looking at Wellington or is it more Wellington looking at Napoleon? The good news is that regardless of who is who at this point - the truth is that, any single ER report in such a doubting negative market environment - is more a skirmish than decisive end game event.
All the Best,