FinallyFoolin January 2023 Portfolio Update

2023 came with some reminders of a year ago and some new things that hadn’t happened in a while.

Beginning of the month was a lot of RED. Felt like last year’s January where my portfolio was down over 21.2%. However, mid-month things started to turn around. My portfolio turned GREEN YTD for the first time in OVER a year. It also then surpassed the S&P 500 index for the first time in over a year!! Both very welcome things.


No major transactions during the month. Sold a little TSLA in preparation for a couple things this year, wish I’d have sold something else instead now!! haha. Luckily it was just a tiny bit.

A few thoughts:
Obviously, I’m VERY high on $SNOW. I think the combination of their revenue being heavily weighted towards existing customers & their huge success with very large clients gives them a floor in the MACRO environment. Then once MACRO subsides, there is a whole lot of potential.

Sentinel One being “cheaper” (P/S NTM) than CRWD has me pretty excited. Seems likely that it’ll outperform CRWD over the next year or so. Looking forward to seeing the numbers on their upcoming report.


FF, your last paragraph made me curious since I know you are well experienced in the area:

What do you make of the combination of S tone during the Q3 call when they were cautious (IMO more so then, say, NET) and what MSFT said of how Q4 ended for them?

I.e. why are you looking forward to this particular report/call?

As for valuations, I don’t think there is a clear rule on SaaS valuation even now but back in 2021 cheap was not a good thing for SaaS (maybe if you get to traditional valuations but that’s like 2 P/S).

I own S instead of CRWD (directly) as well (I own both indirectly in my 401k). But it is probably the Q4 report I am least looking forward to hence my question.



Several reasons I’m looking forward to the S call.

  1. Further evidence that the experience S is getting in this market is different from what CRWD is experiencing
  2. See continued margin improvement - they are shooting for GM break-even within the next 4-5 q’s.
  3. Hear the progress on moving UPmarket
  4. I think their position in cloud protection plus their relatively small size is likely to have a bigger overall impact for them
  5. How prudent were they? It sounded to me on the call that their indicator would normally indicate DOUBLE the guide than what they provided.