Didn’t necessarily see this coming via the numbers, but sort of felt it coming.
For a while now my conviction on FVRR has been steadily dropping. The numbers looked good as you say but I wasn’t convinced it could continue as the world began to “open up” again. I felt like growth would definitely stall for at least some period of time. I was questioning this to the point that I considered selling it all earlier this week, but did not.
And now today, just three months later, we get guidance reverted back to 48%-52%??? I understand that we’re living in a very unpredictable environment, but I think this was a very poor miscalculation that sent the wrong signal to their investors. Raising guidance by 20% to later go back and decrease it by 7% is inexcusable in my eyes.
Perhaps I’m oversimplifying this but to me this is a sign that management either can’t see what’s happening in the business or chooses not to. And either option shakes my confidence. If I can see something that the CEO can’t, that’s a problem.
I did end up selling my entire position (~4.5%) this morning which resulted in almost 1% hit to my whole portfolio. That hurt, but I did learn a valuable lesson. When you start to lose confidence in any position take the time to really investigate why you’re losing confidence. There may be something there that isn’t showing up in the numbers, yet…