Let's talk ZScaler?

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		**Q1**
	10/31/2019	2/1/2020	4/30/2020	7/31/2020	10/31/2020	1/31/2021	4/30/2021	7/31/2021	**10/31/2021**
**Revs**	93,590		101,268		110,524		125,914		142,578		157,044		176,404		197,074		**220,996**
**QoQ**			8.20%		9.14%		13.92%		13.23%		10.15%		12.33%		11.72%		**12.14%**
**YoY**									52.34%		55.08%		59.61%		56.51%		**55.00%**

Setting my own expectations for ZS reporting this week. I don’t think the 52% YoY growth last year reflects seasonality, so I’m hoping to see 55% YoY growth.

Anyone else have a substantially different view of what I should be looking for?

-Another Rob


Hi Rob,

If you preview your message before posting you will be able to see how much will actually show when you have posted it. Putting it on two lines would have been better.

I think we may even see a little more than 55%. Perhaps 57%-58%, but that may be wishful thinking.



The last 5 quarters, their guidance beat has been (from oldest to newest; 5.4% was last quarter):

5.80% 7.22% 6.08% 7.56% 5.40%

Therefore, I’m expecting the floor to be close to a 5.4% beat, with potential for a couple more percents. They guided for 212. 5.4% beat is 223.4 M. This comes in at 56.7% YoY and even more exciting, the QoQ would be 13.37% (annualized to 65.18% run rate).

Looking ahead, I think there is a very good chance at acceleration, possibly into the 60s (not in Q1 but possibly Q2).

The number to really look out for will be their guide. Their fiscal Q2 last year (upcoming quarter) was their weakest within the past 4 Qs. If they lap it with a higher QoQ, then the top line revenue growth will have a larger acceleration.

Using 223.4 in my model for Q1, 249 for Q2 would be 11.4% QoQ (annualized at 54%). This would have the top YoY revenue growth around 59%. 251M for Q2 would get them right on the cusp of 60% YoY in Q2.


It is better than I expected: https://ir.zscaler.com/node/10466/pdf

I was thinking 220-222 with a guide for 235sh but we got 230.5 and a guide for 240-242. I guess we should expect a minimum of 255 for next quarter or 62% which compares favorably to the 65% of 2019 given that back then ZS brought in all of 74 million! We may even see higher growth than in early 2019 off a base more than 3X larger.

Also, what we got is 17% seq increase and larger than the usual beat.

Deferred revenue is up 74% vs 71% in Q2 vs 65% in Q1 (calendar quarters).

All looks good to me, use the link about for the release instead of me reciting numbers here.

Also, obligatory Thank You note to muji for his ZS product analysis.