Currently trading at $12.95/sh, down 4.5% on the day. 52 week high of $23.50. Traded over $17 five days ago.
On Thursday they reported earnings of $.38/sh for the most recent quarter, vs. $.45 estimate.
They have authorized a $50m share repurchase program (mkt cap $202m).
If the single analyst following them can be trusted (apparently they can not, based on last miss), next year’s EPS estimate is for $2.91. That gives them a forward PE of about 4.5.
I’m using a data aggregator, not the SEC filings, so caveat lector. I also haven’t read a single filing, so perhaps the numbers are misleading and this really is some kind of compounding engine in the making, but I don’t see it.
First off, it appears their earnings and FCF have been all over the place, so I’d be very reluctant to put much stock in a simple trailing or (forecast) forward P/E. With the exception of businesses with remarkably durable and consistent earnings, a straight trailing P/E or earnings yield is seldom very informative about the future of the bidness.
EPS
2006 $1.46
2007 $1.11
2008 $0.24
2009 ($0.66)
2010 $0.01
2011 ($0.98)
2012 ($3.02) !
2013 ($0.13)
2014 $0.85
2015 $1.64
2016 $0.09
2017 $0.51
2018 ? gap in my data set
2019 ($1.23)
2020 $0.02
2021 ($1.54)
2022 $3.06
TTM 3.27
Sum of all earnings, from 2006-2022 (omitting 2018), 17 years: a whopping $1.43/share. Consistent revenue growth from 2001-2007 appears to have been followed by a slow decrease in revenue with many years of negative or negligible earnings. Meanwhile working capital decreased from $52m in 2006 to $31m in 2022. In many years, capex significantly outstripped FCF on a per-share basis. Total assets over that time frame took a journey, starting at $242M and ending up at $266M.
As far as “buying back shares,” if my data aggregator can be trusted, share count is basically flat from 2017-2022.
I see a big increase in inventory 2021-2022, seldom a good sign for a retailer. Sorry – it’s a bit lazy of me to tar them with a broad brush, but I’m not seeing much here that warrants further investigation. To each their own!