Just dropped below $50 - I doubled my stake today at prices in the low 50s (I just missed the brief dip below 50), so my average price is about $53.
I think it’s a juggernaut, with covid vaccine sales that are likely to remain strong and with covid pill (Paxlovid) sales that will be low in the first half of the year but which will take off in the second half, as their production capacity expands. And although I have thought that our response to the covid crisis has been vastly overblown, I also don’t think the problem is going to go away any time soon. It will be like the flu for the foreseeable future, and we will probably want to keep getting vaccine boosters and updates, as the variants change, and, at least for people with high risk of serious disease, we will want to get prophylactic drug therapy just in case the vaccine isn’t enough (or if we have turned down the vaccine.) Pfizer has the leading product in both categories, and I don’t think their sales will drop very much, if at all, barring the arrival of a better product.
Prior to the Q4 report, their shares were at about 15 times earnings from the last 12 months. With higher Q4 earnings and a lower share price, that multiple is now less than 12.
The shares are down a few percent today because the company is projecting earnings in 2022 that are lower than what many people expected: ‘only’ up to $98-102b ($81b last year), not $106b as the market is supposed to have expected. Boo hoo. Expected eps is $6.35-6.55, or a p/e of 8. Yes, 8.
I can’t seem to find a previous discussion of this stock on this board - maybe it was on the Berkshire board? I can’t find it there either. Anyways, I think this price will look pretty good as the year goes on.