Pfizer at 34.30. ($PFE)

Quite good relative value on this falling knife I think.

Lowest price in the last 8 years or so was March 2020, around $27-30, depending on whether you take the intra-week or intra-day low.

Add in roughly 20% inflation.

Subtract out 10% for devaluing patents (warning: this is just a guess!).

Add in $12.33 earnings since then.

Subtract out $5.60 dividends since then.

Result: $36-39, depending on which ‘low’ you prefer to use.

Today’s price: $34.30.

IMHO: cheaper than the lowest lows of the last 8 years, but with a stronger position in terms of pipeline and finances.

What might reverse the recent bad sentiment?

  • historically, you get totally random 20-30% rallies in PFE every now and then - look at the 5 year chart

  • lots of covid + new major clade BA.2.86 → covid revenue higher than expected, for longer than expected?

(BA.2.86 news triggered 30% rallies in $MRNA and $BNTX recently from $95->$125)

  • new GLP-3 med en route, stage 3 (has taken LLY/NVO share prices to the moon this year +50%)

(Pfizer’s GLP-3 med is oral rather than a jab, and works faster than the competitors)

  • general shortages in medicines throughout global healthcare systems should boost prices up

  • aging population, cancer meds, backlog in cancer treatment, etc

  • equity fund managers fleeing tech in a tech crash and looking for a safe, low-beta, busted out safe haven stock?

Lastly : I think it passes the ‘PER reliably below 10x in 5 years’, since it’s already <10x, and ±20-25% dividends can be reinvested to effectively bring it down further.

Probably worth a punt, I think?

I hold $PFE.


If you thought Pfizer was a bargain at $34.30, well, at $32.00, it’s 7% better still! :slight_smile:


and back up we go! on no news at all

+3.5% pfizer (broad big pharma -1% today)

+6.5% biontech

The news is that a German court ruled in favor of BioNTech in a patent case.

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Thanks. I saw other news Biontech cancelling plans for factories they were meant to be building in Africa.