Quite good relative value on this falling knife I think.
Lowest price in the last 8 years or so was March 2020, around $27-30, depending on whether you take the intra-week or intra-day low.
Add in roughly 20% inflation.
Subtract out 10% for devaluing patents (warning: this is just a guess!).
Add in $12.33 earnings since then.
Subtract out $5.60 dividends since then.
Result: $36-39, depending on which ‘low’ you prefer to use.
Today’s price: $34.30.
IMHO: cheaper than the lowest lows of the last 8 years, but with a stronger position in terms of pipeline and finances.
What might reverse the recent bad sentiment?
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historically, you get totally random 20-30% rallies in PFE every now and then - look at the 5 year chart
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lots of covid + new major clade BA.2.86 → covid revenue higher than expected, for longer than expected?
(BA.2.86 news triggered 30% rallies in $MRNA and $BNTX recently from $95->$125)
- new GLP-3 med en route, stage 3 (has taken LLY/NVO share prices to the moon this year +50%)
(Pfizer’s GLP-3 med is oral rather than a jab, and works faster than the competitors)
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general shortages in medicines throughout global healthcare systems should boost prices up
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aging population, cancer meds, backlog in cancer treatment, etc
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equity fund managers fleeing tech in a tech crash and looking for a safe, low-beta, busted out safe haven stock?
Lastly : I think it passes the ‘PER reliably below 10x in 5 years’, since it’s already <10x, and ±20-25% dividends can be reinvested to effectively bring it down further.
Probably worth a punt, I think?
I hold $PFE.
