For all the ones that Believe a recession is coming

** The United States has experienced a striking surge in construction spending for manufacturing facilities. Real manufacturing construction spending has doubled since the end of 2021 (Figure 1).[1] The surge comes in a supportive policy environment for manufacturing construction: the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA), Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), and CHIPS Act each provided direct funding and tax incentives for public and private manufacturing construction.**



…and that is amped further by the huge amount of manufacturing construction going on in Mexico, both sides of the border likely very dependent on the other for chains of supply.

China screwed itself badly, and now that is literally being concretized.

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The heart of the next six months for all of us whether long or waiting, will be the equity and bond market fall due to rate hikes and overvaluation. Have retail sales slowed because of student loan repayments?

Do we get an opportunity to buy much lower? This is very shaky right now. I do not know. I want it that does not mean I get it. We can not figure out or judge that during the holiday season.

Factory building and actual production have begun. We saw the productivity number jump.

Leap1, Which productivity number are you referring to? and how does that correlate with market performance?

Productivity was indeed up last quarter, but not for manufacturing.

Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased 4.7% in the third quarter of 2023…

Manufacturing sector labor productivity declined 0.7% in the third quarter of 2023, as output decreased 0.1% and hours worked increased 0.7%.



It is not that simple. If we get better at building factories that is an increase in productivity. The companies that do the construction are beefed up and very efficient. Perhaps.

That is true if the factory building takes less labor than previously, and then if the production from that new factory is less labor intensive.

“Labor productivity, or output per hour, is calculated by dividing an index of real output by an index of
hours worked by all workers…”


After a good night’s sleep the big productive increase is among workers who stopped changing jobs. Yes many had promotions and better pay. Now the workers are getting better at their jobs because many are staying a little longer.