Fred Lambert's TSLA Cybercab re-launch predictions

[mostlylong]

@McLovin1981

It had deposits for 1.2 million units.

Google estimates 66,000 cumulative Cybertrucks have been sold, so 1.134 million customers are still waiting, or cart abandoned?

Massive unmet demand?

[Goofyhoofy]

@McLovin1981

It is pretty clear their tech just isn’t up to the job yet. The Cybercab is shaping up to be a blunder perhaps greater than the Cybertruck.

Still it’s a horse race with The Boring Company, which sports a (private market) capitalized value of around $23 billion, with annual revenues well under $100 million.

I rode Elon Musk’s Vegas Loop, the worst transit system on Earth

Column: SFGATE managing editor Katie Dowd takes a trip on the least efficient form of transit on the Vegas Strip

Client Challenge

@captainccs

@Goofyhoofy

(nor hope of getting some what with regulatory issues)

The oracle has spoken

You do know that there are regulations requiring vehicles to have a steering wheel and brake pedal, right? And that Amazon’s Zoox, which have neither, is operating on a conditional license and is allowed 2,500 vehicles for the next two years.It’s hard to build a world beating business that way, although treating it as a “learning program” makes it kind of OK. But driving 4 (or is it 2?) Robotaxis around Houston isn’t very impressive, I wouldn’t think.

[captainccs]

@McLovin1981

@captainccs

Don’t you think Tesla is known well enough?

Evidently not, because the Cybercab isn’t selling itself. Elon Musk estimated it would sell between 250,000 and 500,000 units a year. It had deposits for 1.2 million units. Instead it is a sales disaster, selling only an estimated 3,500 units in Q1.

I believe you mean CyberTruck.

Would ads pump CyberTruck sales from 3,500 per quarter to 35,000? Why not accept that CyberTruck has no mass market and act accordingly? Why accept conventional wisdom instead of reality?

@McLovin1981

This is a bit of a problem.

Yes, why go whole hog instead of a trial run to see how things work out. That’s how the Tesla Semi was developed. I have no idea, Elon Ego? BTW, I called out Hertz for the same mistake. Maybe you answered the question.

@McLovin1981

Cybertruck was a clean sheet design. And Tesla created some genuinely innovative technology for the vehicle that wasn’t used on other Tesla’s like 48 v architecture, 800 v powertrain, steer by wire, dynamic steering ratio, rear wheel steering, etc. The R&D costs had to be enormous.

And not just the R&D. The capex was enormous too. They built out assembly lines at GigaTexas that included the novel giga casting machines, new laser-cutting tooling for the cold-rolled stainless body, etc.

Something new is something “that wasn’t used on other Teslas” by definition.

• 800 volts and steer by wire were know as effective technologies.
• Giga casting machines were adopted by Tesla well before the CyberTruck. The innovation was making them even larger.
• I don’t know about laser-cutting tooling. Maybe SpaceX uses them. Google AI says they do. There seems to be a lot of SpaceX technology in the CyberCab.

The real question, how many of these technologies are being applied to the CyberTaxi? Maybe the CyberTruck was the test run for the CyberTaxi.

@McLovin1981

Tesla doesn’t break out capex by vehicle, but capex surged right around this time, and the depreciation is hitting the books now. But the anticipated revenues never arrived. In the business world, the technical term for this is “disaster.”

True for CyberTruck in isolation. Is it true for Tesla as a whole? Some of it is already being amortized by the CyberTaxi.

The Captain

[McLovin1981]

@Goofyhoofy

Still it’s a horse race with The Boring Company, which sports a (private market) capitalized value of around $23 billion, with annual revenues well under $100 million.

This is a head scratcher for me. Despite what they say, they don’t actually have any new technology. They use smaller diameter boring machines than would typically be used for vehicle tunnels and they put the platforms on the surface instead of underground, which saves a ton of money.

But if you want a tunnel like that you don’t need TBC.

[McLovin1981]

@captainccs

True for CyberTruck in isolation. Is it true for Tesla as a whole? Some of it is already being amortized by the CyberTaxi.

Seems to be. Depreciation represents dollars you spent in the past to generate (hopefully) even more dollars right now. In Q2 depreciation was up 18% and net income was down -5%. It is more complicated than that, but that’s generally not what you want to see.

The Cybercab problem is even worse because there are no revenues and likely won’t be for a long time, if ever.

[gledmo]

I don’t live in Houston, however, my city is completely surrounded by it. There have been multiple deliveries of cybercabs at the showroom/geofenced robotaxi area in the soccer mom suburbs but they mainly sit in a lot parked. I would consider it an indefinite storage situation and whether it makes any sense to keep parking more remains to be seen. I occasionally see a cybercab on the road with a human driving. I guess not all have controls removed. I remain confused as to why Elon insisted on this design as it seems as though it must be a very claustrophobic experience to be in one with their lack of rear windows