I’m going out on a limb and assuming French politics doesn’t break the “no politics” rule.
The upcoming runoff in 2 weeks has macro impact. Will France remain friendly with the EU and NATO, or will it turn towards Russia?
That’s the choice. The election again comes down to Macron vs. Marine Le Pen. Macron beat Le Pen in 2017 66-34 in the 2nd round of voting. This year it looks much closer with current polling at 54-46 for Macron. Macron has been a steadfast champion of Europe and NATO. Le Pen at various times has questioned staying in the EU and NATO and has many ties to Putin.
In short, a Macron victory will help maintain a unified front against Russia; a Le Pen victory would be very destabilizing to the entire West.
In short, a Macron victory will help maintain a unified front against Russia; a Le Pen victory would be very destabilizing to the entire West.
Hungary is also an EU and NATO member, but Orban, reelected a week ago, is openly kissy-face with Putin. iirc, Hungary is the only former Warsaw Pact member that is pro-Russian. Poland, Czech Republic and Slovakia have all been pouring their surplus Soviet-era equipment into the war. The Russians are claiming they already took out the Slovak S-300 battery, but I would suggest that Russian veracity is questionable, given their repeated assurances they would not invade.
Macron didn’t help himself with the policy moves that ignited the yellow vest demonstrations a couple years ago. It is disquieting that Le Pen is the beneficiary.
a Le Pen victory would be very destabilizing to the entire West
She has been very coy and manipulative in her responses. She is not acting like a racist any longer. Wow like that leopard has changed her spots. She is saying why should France risk things for the Ukraine? Which to me makes her a complete coward and a liar.
She has constantly demonstrated a lack of caring for anything but power. Ironically she would emasculate Europe.
Her marketing this time has been brilliant with everything phrased as if she is needed and Macron is a problem. The press here covers her constantly and Macron not at all. As if telling people she is outrageous will stop her. The press forgets their discussing her is just free advertising. Their opinions are routinely considered worthless. If the press would face how worthless their opinions are there might be some progress. News reporters would suddenly go back to reporting the news.
In short, a Macron victory will help maintain a unified front against Russia; a Le Pen victory would be very destabilizing to the entire West.
Hungary is also an EU and NATO member, but Orban, reelected a week ago, is openly kissy-face with Putin. iirc, Hungary is the only former Warsaw Pact member that is pro-Russian.
Could the above mean the Russians have access to NATO secrets?
"Her marketing this time has been brilliant with everything phrased as if she is needed and Macron is a problem. The press here covers her constantly and Macron not at all."
Macron didn´t say a word in the months leading up to the election.
An absurd strategy which paid off until now.
I don´t like MLP at all, but I don´t like him either.
He speaks like a robot and I think he has huge mental problems.
And he´s only 44…
Pikketty on the French election:https://www.lemonde.fr/blog/piketty/2022/01/11/macron-is-res… If France has become particularly right-wing, it is also and above all because Macronism in power has shifted a good part of the voters and elected officials from the centre-left to the centre-right, and even further and further to the right. On the economic front, Macron has applied the right-wing agenda: abolition of the ISF (Impôt sur la fortune /Wealth tax), flat tax on dividends, deregulation of the labour market, absolute priority given to the « first in line » (premiers de cordée), with the consequences we know during the « yellow waistcoats » (gilets jaunes) crisis and a lasting discredit brought to any idea of a carbon tax in France. Having been robbed of its economic platform, the right then embarked on a chase with the far right, with considerable anti-migrant and anti-Muslim diatribes, as we witnessed during the LR primary.
The Macronist government itself, no longer knowing how to address the working classes, has begun to mimic the most extreme right. In particular, in recent years it has contributed to trivialising the nauseating rhetoric about the « Islamo-leftist gangrene in universities », a detestable phraseology that came from the far right before being taken up by a government that nevertheless relies in part on voters from the centre-left. It has thus powerfully fuelled the current right-wing trend, which it now wants to counteract, like an arsonist turned fire-fighter.
What can we conclude from all this? First of all, it would be healthy for Macron’s supporters to realise this drift and draw the consequences. Either they approve of it and in that case vote for Pécresse: the difference between the two is infinitesimal, and this would restore clarity to the political landscape. It is all too easy for wealthy voters to have all the fiscal and financial advantages of Macronism while giving themselves a cheap conscience of so-called « progressivism ». After all, there is nothing nefarious about voting for a pro-business and slightly nationalistic right. Or they disapprove of this drift and in that case they go back to vote for the left in the first round (there is no shortage of choice…).
If the left abandons democratic and universalist internationalism and allows the market-based and the falsely European internationalism of the centre-right (whether Macronian or Pécressian) to flourish, then it too will only contribute to preparing xenophobic nationalism to come to power in the more or less long term.
The Macronist government itself, no longer knowing how to address the working classes,
That sort of line is pure propaganda. It is not true at all but anyone spouting it tars the opponent. It is useful to say. At the same time that huge liar Le Pen out for sheer power says she loves people. Hardly.
The worst part of that line is it takes the working classes for idiots. As if people do not know policies that work v policies that sound good but do not work.
Any election only needs to be won by a few thousand votes in a few cities. If Le Pen wins she will make it out to be a revolution in French politics instead of a small margin of victory. She has liar in every regard written all over her.
Hungary is also an EU and NATO member, but Orban, reelected a week ago, is openly kissy-face with Putin.
Yes, Orban is a problem, but Hungary is a small country with only 34,000 active military.
France is a big country with nuclear weapons, the 2nd largest economy in Europe, and over 200,000 active military (3rd largest in NATO behind the USA and Turkey).