FWIF: I shorted SPY today

I have been wanting to short SPY from $450; twice I shorted only to close it for a quick gain. Not a big position just couple of hundred shares. Given my luck, this may mark short-term bottom, if it is all of you can thanks me. If not, I will come back and crow what a great market timer I am.


Closed it. Not feeling confident to hold long or short.

Not feeling confident to hold long or short.

This is funny as I acted similarly today, not only not confident but completely confused:

  1. On Monday after their extreme fall from grace I bought Sep’22 calls for SaaS stocks. Yesterday I came to the conclusion that I have no real confidence about their direction at all and sold them yesterday and today — and was very relieved of having gotten out without a big loss.

  2. As I still believe in Jim’s “Minor Bottom Signals” and Berkshire is down to 1.32x BV I bought Jan’24 calls, with the intention to buy more if Berkshire continues to fall. Much better feeling than with the SaaS stocks as Berkshire clearly is more predictable.

  3. JimKredux’ reply to my “Too early?” question made me realize that this is just stupid brainless action for actions sake, just “to do something”. That as JK I also don’t need to do anything until predictable Berkshire or similar OBVIOUSLY gets ridiculously cheap — and not only do not need to do anything, but SHOULD not do anything in such an apparently confused state.

  4. So I sold the BRK calls I bought just a few hours ago. Now at least I know what a “Day Trader” is: Someone who spends his life in front of ticker symbols. Can’t imagine others to be equally confused, but who knows.
    P.S.: It was a stroke of genius that 2 decades ago I gave all my money to Warren. Having practically only Berkshire shares saves me from myself.