G.Chang:China Preparing for War

Goofy,

Xi is up for reelection and is probably going to be replaced.

The Chinese, people of the Han, definitely feel Taiwan is theirs and the US should keep out of it.

That said the Chinese are not all on the same page about going to war.

When Japan was militaristic towards the US that was a few elites not the Japanese people. When Hitler rose to power his party was roughly one sixth of the population. Most Germans really never supported him.

The idea that leadership speaking for others and making major miscalculations speaks for a majority of any country is just wrong. But that a country is at war propagates their guilt as such.

China does not have the resources to go to war. Not even on land, their economy is so out of it.

This really all boils down to who develops more secure computer hardware and software. Jamming GPS and other communications will decide who controls Taiwan. It will decide who dares to challenge the west. If we can jam China’s hardware they lose any war. If they can not jam our hardware they will never take us on.

making major miscalculations speaks for a majority of any country is just wrong.


Leap1: This really all boils down to who develops more secure computer hardware and software. Jamming GPS and other communications will decide who controls Taiwan. It will decide who dares to challenge the west. If we can jam China’s hardware they lose any war. If they can not jam our hardware they will never take us on.


Way too simplistic - and prone to those miscalculations. First of all, it would not be China’s decision to “take us on”. It would be China’s decision to, if forced (in their minds) to protect their interests against our incursions to take Taiwan, it is perfectly within their capability to do so militarily (as they have recently demonstrated). Don’t underestimate their military - either from the standpoint of size or of sophistication. They have the advantage of being far closer to their objective than we are and, in an approximation of the inverse square law would have an easier time jamming our communications than the reverse.

They have managed to spend the last few decades growing stronger without the loss of personnel and treasure that we have squandered in an assortment of wars and conflicts around the world. When they needed to apply military strength, such as in Korea during the 1950’s and in Southeast Asia during the 1970’s/1980’s, they did so without hesitation and with overwhelming force. Don’t misinterpret their docile behavior as incompetence or ability. They have just finished warning us about Taiwan and indicating that they have no reason to expect the US to interfere militarily.

Jeff

4 Likes

The angry crap between Taiwan and China has been going on for decades. We just are witnessing en mas for the first time on TV. It shocks most Americans but that reality has been going on for a long time.

Most of any war between the US and China would be fought without much equipment because everyone right now can jam all of it.

In the next few years the US will pull away with secure hardware.

China’s economic growth is over. They are sitting on a pile of debt. Do not be surprised if they forfeit on a lot of that debt. The financial side of things makes any war China might want undoable.

Picking on the flash points in Asia with smaller nations is not all that relevant if the US really wants to hold onto Taiwan for the Taiwanese.

I think it is important to topple the communist party. I think it is safer to topple the communists in the long run.

2 Likes

For a scary plausible war scenario, read “2034” by Elliot Ackerman and Admiral James Stravridis.
Amazon link: https://www.amazon.com/2034-Novel-Next-World-War/dp/B08BSZRX…

Xi is up for reelection and is probably going to be replaced.

Probably not. The last People’s Congress changed their Constitution to allow him to serve for life. Replacing him would be a stunning reversal.

When Japan was militaristic towards the US that was a few elites not the Japanese people. When Hitler rose to power his party was roughly one sixth of the population. Most Germans really never supported him.

That’s the point. It doesn’t take “the people”, it takes a leader (and coterie) with nationalistic, militaristic intentions. And you couldn’t be more wrong about Germans supporting Hitler. They came slowly in the early 30’s, to be sure, but once he assimilated power the economy boomed, and his populist rhetoric to make Germany great again was well received. If you recall George Bush’s popularity rankings after the Iraq invasion (north of 90%) you’ll have some idea of how popular Adolph was when he swiftly took over Austria, half of Poland, and especially the detested France who had “humiliated” the Germans following the Great War.

(I have a bit of first hand knowledge here, as my first MIL and FIL were immigrants from Germany and Austria, respectively following World War II. The MIL told me how rapturous the women were to hear/see him (including her), and while my FIL was less happy to talk about it, he acknowledged wide and broad support for the regime right up until the reversals following the bombing of Berlin and the Russian invasion.)

China does not have the resources to go to war. Not even on land, their economy is so out of it.

China has the second largest military in the world by dollars spent and the largest by manpower. Moreover their people generally do what they’re told, and there is little dissent. You may have noticed that they are adept at producing electronics, cars, solar panels, washing machines and other consumer products. They produce housing in mass quantities; they are building canals to transport water from the north of the country to the south on a vast scale. They have more industrial capacity now than the US had in 1941, and we seem to have done all right.

They are within 100 miles or so of Taiwan with the ability to establish bases anywhere they want along their coastline. We are 7,000 of miles away, without that ability. Were I an American general I would be hard pressed to offer a plan for success to defend the nation, or even to supply it in case of invasion or encirclement.

This really all boils down to who develops more secure computer hardware and software. Jamming GPS and other communications will decide who controls Taiwan.

China has its own GPS system, proprietary and encrypted, just as the US, Russia and the EU do. I’m not sure why you think it’s vulnerable but we’re not. (And, FWIW, these are just the kinds of miscalculations that I wrote about earlier.)

15 Likes

John Hackett wrote about a fictional WW3 between US & Soviets in 1982.
https://www.amazon.com/Third-World-War-Untold-Story/dp/00254…

1 Like

China has its own GPS system, proprietary and encrypted, just as the US, Russia and the EU do. I’m not sure why you think it’s vulnerable but we’re not.

I agree. I’m sure the encryption codes are perfectly secure.

It’s not like we store them in a box in an unlocked closet at a golf resort.

AW

28 Likes

Goof,

Yes the American public supported the Iraqi war by 90%. That showed up as support for W. That level of support was very short lived. It was not about W. The German public supported Hitler’s wars. It lasted while Hitler was successful. But I have known family’s whose leaders from Germany risked their lives avoiding becoming a Nazi and mocking the German army. Hard choices were made in the name of evil by the many Germans. I am not excusing that. Many were glad Hitler came to ruin. George McGovern has a story about that which is quite impressive. When Germany was conquered at least in the west things changed over a matter of a few years like never before in a history of a conquered nation.

I have worked closely some years ago with Chinese immigrants that never left the Chinese community in NYC. Barely speaking any English. You know very little about the Chinese culture and taking orders.

Americans way under estimate the Chinese public. Xi is only there by the Chinese public’s graces. Does not matter at the end of the day if he has complete power. That would not really stop the Chinese public from hanging the entire communist party. The party is very aware of that and respects they must provide economically. That ability to provide is disappearing.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/17/business/china-economy-re…

NYT

snippet

The mortgage rebellions have roiled a property market facing the fallout from a decades-long housing bubble. It has also created unwanted complication for President Xi Jinping, who is expected to coast to a third term as party leader later this year on a message of social stability and continued prosperity in China.

So far, the government has scrambled to limit the attention garnered by the boycotts. After an initial flurry of mortgage strike notices went viral on social media, the government’s internet censors kicked into action. But the influence of the strikes has already begun to spread.

The number of properties where collectives of homeowners have started or threatened to boycott has reached 326 nationwide, according to a crowdsourced list titled “WeNeedHome” on GitHub, an online repository. ANZ Research estimates that the boycotts could affect about $222 billion of home loans sitting on bank balance sheets, or roughly 4 percent of outstanding mortgages.

This wiki page on the Chinese culture might surprise you.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Protest_and_dissent_in_China

snippet

In spite of restrictions on freedom of association, particularly in the decades since the death of Mao Zedong, there have been incidents of protest and dissent in China. Among the most notable of these were the 1959 Tibetan uprising against Chinese Communist Party (CCP) rule, the 1989 Tiananmen Square protests, which were put down with brutal military force, and the 25 April 1999 demonstration by 10,000 Falun Gong practitioners at Zhongnanhai. Protesters and dissidents in China espouse a wide variety of grievances, including corruption, forced evictions, unpaid wages, human rights abuses, environmental degradation, ethnic protests, petitioning for religious freedom and civil liberties, protests against one-party rule, as well as nationalist protests against foreign countries.

The number of annual protests has grown steadily since the early 1990s, from approximately 8,700 “mass group incidents” in 1993[1] to over 87,000 in 2005.[2] In 2006, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences estimated the number of annual mass incidents to exceed 90,000, and Chinese sociology professor Sun Liping estimated 180,000 incidents in 2010.[3][4] Mass incidents are defined broadly as “planned or impromptu gathering that forms because of internal contradictions”, and can include public speeches or demonstrations, physical clashes, public airings of grievances, and other group behaviors that are seen as disrupting social stability.[5]

Despite the increase in protests, some scholars have argued that they may not pose an existential threat to CCP rule because they lack “connective tissue;”[6] the preponderance of protests in China are aimed at local-level officials, and only a select few dissident movements seek systemic change.[7] In a study conducted by Chinese academic Li Yao, released in 2017, the majority of protests which were non-controversial did not receive much if any negative police action, which is to say police may have been present but in no more capacity than Western police would be attending to a protest/mass gathering event. The idea that Chinese do not protest or would be brutally repressed for any kind of political action does not seem to be supported by existing data.[8] In addition, it was noted at times that the national government uses these protests as a barometer to test local officials’ response to the citizens under their care.

2 Likes

1 They are within 100 miles or so of Taiwan with the ability to establish bases anywhere they want along their coastline.

2 China has its own GPS system, proprietary and encrypted, just as the US, Russia and the EU do. I’m not sure why you think it’s vulnerable but we’re not. (And, FWIW, these are just the kinds of miscalculations that I wrote about earlier.)

Goof,

If you would read more carefully, I said all the hardware ours and theirs would be jammed. Taking the Island with jammed hardware is next to impossible. The Taiwanese can well defend themselves in street fighting. The subs we have would not be jammed. The subs can sink ocean troop carriers.

This is a race to see a few years from now if we have hardware and software that can not be jammed for a generation of equipment. While seeing if we can jam the Chinese and Russian hardware.

Hardware that is jammed wont be fighting ten miles away never mind 100 miles away and we do not have to travel 7000 miles to meet that hardware. Jammed is just one word for it. It might be possible to destroy computer chips altogether before any jamming signals are used. The Israelis at one point may have destroyed Iranian uranium centrifuges by destroying the chips. I am not at all certain how that works.

googling

How did Stuxnet destroy centrifuges?
Stuxnet reportedly destroyed numerous centrifuges in Iran’s Natanz uranium enrichment facility by causing them to burn themselves out. Over time, other groups modified the virus to target facilities including water treatment plants, power plants, and gas lines.

My point made anything the Chinese send at Taiwan can be screwed with. Or failing that jammed so the course is not known. We do not have to show up in the theater with our equipment.

I’m sure the encryption codes are perfectly secure.

Al,

Encrypting them does not mean they will reach their destination.

We aren’t going to fight China over Taiwan. I think everyone knows that, but we just won’t admit it. We are going to try to influence the form of the takeover, when it happens, but it will likely wind up being a larger version of Hong Kong.

It is really a question of what is possible, and I’m pretty sure the leaders of China and the U.S. both know what is possible and impossible.

2 Likes

We aren’t going to fight China over Taiwan. I think everyone knows that, but we just won’t admit it.

The Taiwan Relations Act (TRA) acknowledged the Chinese position that Taiwan was part of China. It’s the Official US Policy. Basically, Taiwan is a Large Chinese Island.

My point made anything the Chinese send at Taiwan can be screwed with

I guess you will have to explain that to the 1,000,000 soldiers in the Chinese army as they swarm ashore with rifles and bayonets. And no, two or three US aircraft carriers alone can’t and won’t stop that from happening, trying to cover an area as big as Massachusetts and New Jersey combined , and with more coastline than California. It’s been 70 years, but in the face of overwhelming technological superiority, the Chinese swamped McArthur with simple things like human beings.

There isn’t a war yet that has been won without them.

How died Stuxnet destroy centrifuges?

A: this has nothing do with with anything, but B: by a plan developed and implemented over the course of years, using simple phishing techniques against an unsophisticated foe with virtually no resources to fight back, using technology developed and sold to them by their enemy. I certainly fail to see the parallel.

3 Likes

The Taiwan Relations Act (TRA) acknowledged the Chinese position that Taiwan was part of China. It’s the Official US Policy. Basically, Taiwan is a Large Chinese Island.

I think that simplification is not really what the TRA says. Yes the TRA says Taiwan is Chinese. That does not mean it is communist. That difference is huge.

To the Chinese people there is zero room between Taiwan and mainland China as Chinese. The US acknowledges that. That has nothing to do with the communists. Even as the agreement includes the communists.

Prior to recognizing mainland China, the US had recognized China…as Taiwan. The change is the US recognizing and doing business with the dictatorship on mainland China. The Chinese have powerful feelings pro and con about that. It is a very emotional culture in recent generations.

The suggestion in what you are saying is the agreement one day presages Taiwan being controlled by mainland China is not at all true.

The tension between the two is very serious. It has been going on from the start. The US public got a big shock seeing it. It is the norm for decades. The two trade a lot regardless.

2 Likes

I guess you will have to explain that to the 1,000,000 soldiers in the Chinese army as they swarm ashore with rifles and bayonets.

?? with what floatation devices? The subs the US and UK have can knock them out. The Taiwanese forces can knock them out. Any armaments not deeper underwater will be jammed on both sides. Do misquote me this time.

I think the Chinese communists do not expect to land 1 m men on the island just like that. Sheer fiction.

The British played that game in WW I with Turkey. Churchill saw his biggest defeat.

The Chinese do not expect a walk in the park. They could lose 500k men with that plan. Besides it is bad for business. The west would need automatically shun their economy like we are Russia’s. Meaning Chinese people might starve. Seriously.

I get you live in fear but that is not going to happen. Meanwhile US policy makers are not living in fear. Hopefully, talk about kneejerk stuff. This is not 1950 Korea.

Even getting 1 million Chinese kids with cellphones to line up for such orders would be amusing. The parents would scream bloody murder.

2 Likes

Goofy,

The big reason there will be no war between Taiwan and China…

The Russians are confused when they say Ukrainians are their people. Meaning Putin can order the killings of Ukrainians because Ukrainians are not Russians.

You have to hate your enemy to kill him as a soldier.

The Chinese can not order a war with Chinese people.

It could be seen as a civil war, but there is no morality in it like the US Civil War. It could be seen as a power grab. It is seen as a power grab by some but not clearly a majority. It is an older power grab that is grandfathered in. It does not threaten to topple Beijing. And that is why it would not be a war of morality for Beijing.

The communists can not rationalize killing the Taiwanese.

Human beings kill non stop all the time. If Taiwan were going to be at war over its circumstances it would have happened.

We can attack Cuba at any time. What are the odds? We just talk a big game and let it go. We do not trade with Cuba, but China and Taiwan are in bed together making billions in trade. China even gets around some of the tariffs shipping through Taiwan. There are mainland Chinese illegally here that came with Taiwan’s assistance.

Your worries are not going to be realized.

2 Likes

China has decided to protect its population from infection, regardless of the cost or inconvenience.

But this isn’t at all true. For example, China insists on using their “homebrew” vaccine that is about ~65% effective rather than using the Moderna or Prizer one that is 90+% effective.

And as far as inconvenience, it may be just the opposite. China may be using Covid as a convenient way to suppress the people from revolting against various economic issues (mostly related to housing, and lack of progress regarding funding and delivery and mortgage payments).

6 Likes

Mark,

That is really a very good analysis of why.

A thing to look for prior to any Chinese action on Taiwan is action to weaken the US before hand.

One possible way is to attack the US dollar. China has a lot of US debt, they could also set up other trading regimes with SDR’s etc.

Can they do this? I don’t really know enough about capital markets to say.

But one thing is for sure if the US dollar collapses it will take decades to recover.

China has a lot of US debt,

Instead of me making the true statement and then being told “link”?

I will ask for the link?

I have heard this at any bar in the country. It is not true. So link please?

I am talking in proportion to outstanding US debt. Nothing to do with the trade balance.