China has passed a law allowing its military to engage in “non war” actions. Like The U.S. “-action in Iraq to destroy weapons of mass destruction, and the Russian, military action in Ukraine.
It seems that China believes that with the USA stretched due the Ukraine war it might be a good time to open a second front in Taiwan.
Note: When China puts Taiwan into turmoil, no matter what the political or military outcome, significant supply chain disruptions will take place.
Cheers
Qazulight
When China puts Taiwan into turmoil, no matter what the political or military outcome, significant supply chain disruptions will take place.
That, of course, includes in the Chinese economy. I would think that would make the Chinese government hesitant to put Taiwan into turmoil.
DB2
That, of course, includes in the Chinese economy. I would think that would make the Chinese government hesitant to put Taiwan into turmoil.
DB2
I would hope. However, the Chinese government media outlets seem to reveal a certain amount of hubris, simular to Putin’s prior to the UK invasion.
Normally I would say, and tend to believe, that China plays much longer game. Invasion of anyone, even if it is a “break away province” tends to put people on edge; I am thinking the Philippines, Japan and India. So, even a clean win militarily in Taiwan with no out right US response has repercussions with other countries. These are the same countries that China is attempting to project soft power into via the One Belt One Road initiative.
But . . . the drum beat out of China seems to say, it is time. Maybe it is a domestic problem brought on by the lock downs and the economy. War is tends to be good to reduce internal unrest. In any case, I find it worth keeping an eye on.
Cheers
Qazulight
Qaz,
This does not mean China moves.
The war games on portrayed on CNN last month left something out. All the military hardware as it stands today is junk that can not be used in battle. The GPS can be jammed. The hardware jammed or hacked etc…There is no war if that happens. In a major theater both sides would accomplish that. Fighting the Taiwanese in street fighting on the island is not going to happen. The basic armaments involved would destroy the Chinese forces.
Fighting the Taiwanese in street fighting on the island is not going to happen. The basic armaments involved would destroy the Chinese forces.
Point is, it doesn’t matter if China wins or loses. The cost in the One Belt One Road initiative would basically be the death penalty for that soft power projection. With it a closing of the planned path for Chinese influence in most of the world, and in the shorter term, a massive reduction in the availability of RAM and other commodity chips.
Having seen Russia make stupid moves in Ukraine, and seeing the propaganda build up in China, I am no longer sanguine that China will not repeat the stupid moves.
Remember, prior to the second Gulf war, the USA had a budget surplus. Iraq was an unforced error. Nobody has cornered the stupidity market.
Cheers
Qazulight
There were a few major papers on preemptive war in Iraq. The logic was to free up the oil. It would have been better to simply live with Hussein and negotiate with him. But the next piece of logic in those reports added up to what would later be called the Arab Spring. That failed very unfortunately because we would not stomach theocracies.
Now we need to negotiate with another theocracy, Iran. Until our leadership get a damned clue we will risk all like idiots when we do not have to. But there is hope for us.
I will give you China is huge risks to all of us. Just we can shut them down. The next generation of more secure hardware and software will begin to roll out in about two years. If successful China will be falling aside militarily.
Right now it is a stalemate with GPS jamming alone.
It seems that China believes that with the USA stretched due the Ukraine war it might be a good time to open a second front in Taiwan.
To invade and conquer an island one needs a good amphibious force as a few thousand paratroopers won’t do the trick. Does anybody know about Chinese capabilities in this area?
DB2