The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is -2.4 percent on April 9, up from -2.8 percent on April 3. The alternative model forecast , which adjusts for imports and exports of gold as described here, is -0.3 percent . After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, both the standard model’s and the alternative model’s forecasts of first-quarter real final sales to private domestic purchasers growth increased from 1.4 percent to 2.0 percent.
Clearly gold is manic. When that reverses they will probably change this again.
Yes, I have been reporting this in the Control Panel for several weeks.
Wendy