Meanwhile —Germans are moving forward with a plan…besides calling for a 15% reduction of gas use …floating LNG import terminals will take in LNG end of this year/early 2023…
Germany in May leased four floating storage and regasification units (FSRUs) for the import of at least 5 billion cubic metres a year each of seaborne gas, of which two are due to become available this year.
from US DOE:
Germany was the largest consumer of natural gas in Europe in 2019, consuming 8.6 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) of natural gas.
As Russian gas became the most cost effective, German demand from Netherlands and Norway faded. Germany has not had LNG import terminals until now. Norway gas comes to Germany direct from North Sea extraction and processing platforms through 3 different pipelines. Most northwestern European countries are also all connected with Germany.
Netherlands is the gas price hub (title transfer) for Euro area but other countries, particularly France and Spain have the multiple import facilities (18-20B cu m/yr). Netherlands has one at 12Bcum…that’s unload/regasification capacity on an annual basis. My calculation (double checked) for Germany demand at 8.6Bcf/day is 88B cu meters annually. Other reports - probably more accurate say it imports 100B cu m annually. 32% in 2021 from Russia.
So the first two FSRU (Floating Storage Regasification Units) at 5B each covers 11% of need. The 3rd unit is said to be operable by YE 2023 and the fourth no until 2026 if I read correctly. So Germany still has a problem:
100B demand 2021
32B from Russia
-15B reduction from forced limitation / coal maybe even oil (diesel) use for industrial heat / power…if this is feasible…
-10B from these new LNG tankers
= 7B (7%) hurdle in winter 22/23.
So maybe from Netherlands and Norway increases they may make it.
Meanwhile USA exports, hurt by Freeport LNG explosion/fire, come back to full capacity in October. Currently in 2022 (Freeport fire in January 22) we’ve been running 9ish BCF/D. In January our production was 11.2BCF/da or so with short term capability of 14BCF/D. At full capacity using 360 da/year (5 for maintenance) we have 113Bcu meters annual capability - enough if Germany had the import facilities.
For perspective USA produced 934Bcu m natural gas in 2021 (2.3% increase YoY vs last 10 years 4.4%/yr growth) so 10-12% is being made into LNG.
We are the largest (for now) exporter of LNG with our 5 large and 2 small production / terminals. There is one additional train coming on-line at Freeport later in 2023. Qatar Petroleum (largest single company LNG producer at 106Bcu m in 2021) and others (Algeria & Nigeria) are not standing still. I’ve read elsewhere that the Germans have multiple suppliers in view for these FSRU’s. Worldwide there is 516Bcm LNG production capacity on-line now. Australia is largest in Asia (108Bcum)
Through June of this year, the U.S exported about 57 bcm of gas as LNG with 39 bcm, or 68%, going to Europe, Refinitiv data shows. That is compared with 34 bcm, or 35%, of LNG exports shipped to Europe for all of 2021.
Some interesting total energy use stats by BP economist here, LNG on pg 38:
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