Outstanding summary, thanks for the effort (especially considering your current difficulties.)
I have a post on MeTAR which may be relevant. The executive summary is that the Chinese New Year is three weeks away, and that is traditionally the heaviest travel time in the country. (The travel is largely in enclosed metal tubes on rails.)
Now that the government has lifted restrictions I expect the pent-up demand to surge, especially considering the lockdowns of the last several years during which families were not allowed to congregate.
So. Millions upon millions of people traveling in rail cars from city to country and then country to city, without restriction - and incidentally, in areas in which the hospitals are already groaning from the weight.
I expect problems.