JP Morgan said last week it believes the odds of a global recession are now at 60% by the end of the year, compared to 40% before Trump’s vast array of tariffs was announced.
Asia was hit much harder than Europe with levies of more than 40% on some key countries, prompting the likes of Vietnam, Taiwan and Indonesia on Sunday to seek new trade deals with Washington.
I’m not too sure. There might be a recession in some places but ‘global’?
Don’t forget that the US economy grew very quickly in the nineteenth century on the back of protectionism:
There is also an interesting chapter on this (chapter 5) in War and Gold: A Five-Hundred-Year History of Empires, Adventures and Debt by Kwasi Kwarteng.
Here in the UK we also industrialized behind a protectionist wall.
Yeah, I’ll bet you didn’t have Millenials and Gen X on their phones as your potential work force 