The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite stock indexes are near record highs
But underneath the gloss of an artificial intelligence boom and surging Wall Street profits, all is not well. America is grappling with an alarming jobs slowdown, a frozen housing market, a small business crunch and crumbling consumer confidence.
The US president may have delivered a booming stock market, but economists warn he is pushing many sectors into recession. His working class Mga support base will be the worst hit.*
“Manufacturing is in recession. Construction is in a deep recession. Transportation and distribution is in recession. Wholesaling is in recession. Retail is holding on by its thumbs, it’s very close,” says Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics.
He believes that as much as a third of the US economy is already effectively in recession.
I am doing well as I expect most on this board are doing as well.
The working class are taking it in the shorts.
The nation could avoid a recession as the working class has little buying power & consumption.
In other words, Trump has succeeded in splitting the US economy in two: while Wall Street and Silicon Valley are booming, the rest of the country is suffering a redneck recession.
Thus this explains:
44.8% favorable 52% unfavorable
If the republicans lose control of both houses; congress can repeal the new tariffs implemented since the beginning of the year. And going forward congress could make changes or repeal parts of the “Big, Beautiful” bill that passed.
Yes and then when the economy catches up with the impact of tarrifs democrats will be in office and it will be used against them. Republican will be elected. They will reap the benefits of democratic legislation and repeal/Reverse everything. Rinse and repeat
At the same time we have great quarterly results from Shopify.
Wednesday offered the latest example of a retail-focused business thriving amid a protracted trade conflict. Shopify’s latest results shattered profit expectations, leading to a nearly 21% surge in the stock, which is now flirting with pandemic-era highs.
While the jury is still out on whether the initial shock of the tariffs will be a one-time price-level increase or a prolonged inflationary event, what is clear is that the story from many companies is that consumers are simply adding to cart and checking out through it. Revenue for the e-commerce platform grew more than 30% from the same period last year.
“We had factored into our guidance some potential impact from tariffs, which did not materialize,” said CFO Jeff Hoffmeister on an earnings call Wednesday. Executives did say that some merchants had increased their prices, but the company did not see any slowdown stemming from the tariffs.
This is why it might be worth being a bullish investor right now. Trump will do anything he can to pump up the stock market, including interfering with the Fed and jiggering the economic statistics.
Could stay bubbleicious for quite a while. The right can sew the wind and hope that the left will reap the whirlwind.
I tend to employee a few tradesmen to help maintain the homestead: electrician, plumber, HVAC service, etc. During casual conversations, each one of them has more business than they can handle and would expand if they could find more people to hire.
My nephew has worked this summer for an organ repairman. My nephew plays the organ and even played on a 200+ year old organ in Germany that Handel used to play. While this guy is in a niche market, he has more business than he can handle and is happy he has an interested kid willing to work.
Heck, when I left residency training (mid 90s) everyone was talking about how bad job prospects were in my field. There were plenty of jobs, just not necessarily where I wanted to work. But if it was work or starve, there were jobs. I’m thinking the same think with this “redneck recession”. As an aside, is anyone calling out the telegraph for using a derogatory term?
The “economy” is like real estate, location, location, location.
We’ve seen the same here. Tradespeople, and even generic handymen, are giving absurdly high quotes because their weeks are full of more work than they can handle. A handyman won’t come out to install a light fixture for less than $200 … so I do it myself. Now I normally would do that myself in my own house, but now I find myself doing it for all the family nearby, my parents, my siblings, and now my daughter and son-in-law. I even helped a friend nearby install a few things last year. Since I’m retired, I don’t mind doing it, especially to save so much money each time. Another example, my son-in-law had a home inspector over today at the house they are buying. Home inspectors used to charge $250, then it went up to $350, and then to $400 relatively recently (post-COVID). Guess how much the guy charged today? SIL paid $675 for a home inspection!
[NOTE: SIL just replied to my text and it was $675, not $575!!!]
That’s insane, but maybe it’s a bigger house? This house is single story, one HVAC unit, ~1900 sq ft, no special devices to check (standard AC, standard kitchen stuff, standard plumbing, standard HWH (HWH will need to be replaced immediately, I checked and it’s a 2008!). Easy attic access. Easy roof access.
allowed!