Global solar & wind growing and cheap

The global weighted average cost of newly commissioned solar photovoltaic (PV), onshore and offshore wind power projects fell in 2021. This was despite rising materials and equipment costs, given that there is a significant lag in the pass through to total installed costs.

The global weighted average levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) of new onshore wind projects added in 2021 fell by 15%, year-on-year, to USD 0.033/kWh, while that of new utility-scale solar PV fell by 13% year-on-year to USD 0.048/kWh and that of offshore wind declined 13% to USD 0.075/kWh. With only one concentrating solar power (CSP) plant commissioned in 2021, the LCOE rose 7% year-on-year to USD 0.114/kWh.

The benefits from renewables in 2022 will be unprecedented, given the fossil fuel price crisis:

The lifetime cost per kWh of new solar and wind capacity added in Europe in 2021 will average at least four to six times less than the marginal generating costs of fossil fuels in 2022.

Globally, new renewable capacity added in 2021 could reduce electricity generation costs in 2022 by at least USD 55 billion.

Between January and May 2022 in Europe, solar and wind generation, alone, avoided fossil fuel imports of at least USD 50 billion.

The data suggests that not all of the materials cost increases witnessed to date have been passed through into equipment prices. This suggests that price pressures in 2022 will be more pronounced than in 2021 and total installed costs are likely to rise this year in more markets.

https://www.irena.org/publications/2022/Jul/Renewable-Power-…

Jaak

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The global weighted average cost of newly commissioned solar photovoltaic (PV), onshore and offshore wind power projects fell in 2021.

And increased in 2022. One can no longer assume continually decreasing costs.

DB2

One can no longer assume continually decreasing costs.

DB2

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Increasing costs of materials impacts all electrical power generation - nuclear, natural gas, coal, renewables, hydro and others.

Which one will see the highest material cost increases?

Which one will see the highest fuel cost increases?

Jaak

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One can no longer assume continually decreasing costs.

Increasing costs of materials impacts all electrical power generation

True. What is new is that renewables have joined the club.

From January:
Global inflation threatens to end era of ever-cheaper clean energy
www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2022/01/21/business/inflation-clea…

DB2

From April:

‘We’re all in trouble’
Wind turbine makers selling at a loss and in a ‘self-destructive loop’
www.rechargenews.com/wind/were-all-in-trouble-wind-turbine-m…
Raw material and logistics inflation coupled with downward price pressures from auctions have led to an unsustainable situation where wind OEMs are selling at a loss, with the sector unable to deliver Europe’s planned tripling of wind capacity by 2030, industry leaders have warned…

After hefty price hikes last year in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic “things were higher but stabilising,” Hickok said, but added that with Russia’s war in Ukraine, the entire system had “unhinched” again in the past eight weeks, making it unsustainable at an unprecedented level of uncertainty. The GE executive said she is very fearful for the entire wind industry ecosystem…

Nordex chief executive José Luis Blanco stressed that even before the Ukraine war, the economics in the wind industry had been destroyed due to price pressures from competitive tenders coupled with a low visibility of wind capacity pipelines due to failed government policies. “We are still selling at loss, because of the dynamic of auctions, the low predictability of volumes,” Blanco told the conference.
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Cost cluster-bomb could ‘slow momentum considerably’ in global solar funding
www.rechargenews.com/solar/cost-cluster-bomb-could-slow-mome…
Global solar power sector corporate funding totalled $7.5bn in the first quarter, a 51% increase from fourth quarter 2021 but 7% lower compared with a year earlier, pointing to the prospect of “significant” slow-down in the sector, according to Mercom Capital.

DB2

Increasing costs of materials impacts all electrical power generation

True. What is new is that renewables have joined the club.

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However, renewables still have the lowest impact from fuel cost increases and the lowest impact on water usage.

Jaak

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Wind/Solar Farms improve efficiency with AI

Wall Street Journal Oct 13 Business page has an article p b2 reporting that Amazon, Alphabet and others are adding AI features to wind and solar farms. They couple previous energy yields with weather predictions to estimate tomorrow’s electricity yield. That allows time to fire up supplemental supplies when needed. Google is reporting 20% efficiency gains.

Solcat in Australia does the same with solar farms.

Intermittent energy production remains an issue with wind and solar but the learning curve is yielding some improvements.

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