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https://static.fmgsuite.com/media/documents/8b3d617a-4dc3-4d…

We are now at or well below Bloomstran’s 2018 conservative IV.

Amazing

This is getting preposterous, especially given the buybacks.

This is getting preposterous, especially given the buybacks.

At the valuation multiple implied by today’s price of about $397000, (about $264.50 per B),
average one year forward returns for observations since 2008 have averaged about inflation + 24%.
I don’t expect that figure, but I expect something nice.

That’s using purely my “two and a half column” metric which applies a big haircut to big positions I worry might be overvalued.
So it is not confused by recent high prices for Apple or Coke and their effect on mark-to-market equity.
And therefore not really affected by any imminent (and presumably transient) drop in book per share.

I’m now up to about as much Berkshire as I ever hold as a percentage of my portfolio.
Which is quite a bit : )
And yes, odds are the price will go a bit lower. Usually nobody nails the bottom except by luck.

Jim

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“forward returns for observations since 2008 have averaged about inflation + 24%.
I don’t expect that figure, but I expect something nice.”

WOW

My number of BRK shares controlled is at an all time high, and going higher. That’s after dropping to more than a three year low back in May. Fun times.

Jeff