Going green = going broke

EV’s are doing serious damage to car industries in Europe:

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Vauxhall to shut Luton van plant in shift to electric vehicles
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/11/26/vauxhall-shut-luton-van-plant-shift-electric-vehicles/
Vauxhall is planning to shut its Luton van-making factory in a move that puts 1,100 jobs at risk, as net zero rules force it to curtail sales of petrol vehicles…

Carlos Tavares, chief executive of Stellantis, launched a “strategic review” of its UK operations this year, saying the ZEV mandate was making Britain a “very difficult market”…

Car companies face heavy fines if they do not hit targets that require 22% of their sales to come from EVs this year, rising to 80% in 2030. Labour has also vowed to reinstate the 2030 ban on petrol cars, which had been pushed back to 2035 by Rishi Sunak.

DB2

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The Vauxhall group is still threatening to close all UK production:

Vauxhall will close its Luton factory in April with more than 1,100 jobs at risk after warning it may halt UK production amid row over government’s electric vehicle targets

If EVs are so good there would be a waiting list for them.

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Keep in mind, UK vehicle plants, of any sort, no longer have easy access to the much larger continental market, thanks to BREXET. Then there is the problem of the Brits driving on the wrong side of the road.

Steve

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It’s easy enough to sell cars to Europe from the UK. the markets are still open to us. However, even if your statement is true, it doesn’t explain the decline in the German market

After the news that Europe’s largest car producer VW may close two plants, experts are sounding the alarm that the downsizing of manufacturing isn’t just limited to the car industry. The German Institute for Economic Research (DIW) says companies need to evolve.

Problem is that no one asked the consumer what they wanted. We all just have an increasing number of politicians and ‘experts’ deciding what we need.

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Markets do the asking. Socialism is anti market.

The Captain

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This blow to the U.K.’s auto industry follows calls by Nissan, the country’s biggest volume BEV manufacturer, for an urgent relaxation of the government’s targets for automakers to sell BEVs despite slowing consumer demand…

Alan Johnson vice president of manufacturing at Nissan U.K. tells the BBC: “Customers are not buying EVs as much as had been expect 18 months ago. Things have changed and, because of that, we are going to have to redirect a lot of funding that had been dedicated to these [technology development] projects in the U.K. to subsidize manufacturers who have got no industrial operations in the UK"…

Nissan’s chairperson for Africa, Middle East, India, Europe and Oceania (AMIEO) region, says: “The mandate risks undermining the business case for manufacturing cars in the UK".

DB2

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Going green can be immensely profitable. Tesla’s market cap is over $1 Trillion selling green energy products.

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Well, well. I’m reminded of what Samuel Johnson once said: “When a man knows he is to be hanged in a fortnight, it concentrates his mind wonderfully.”

UK could ease EV sales targets after backlash from automakers
https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-review-electric-car-sales-targets-says-finance-minister-2024-11-27/
Britain will reconsider rules that force automakers to produce more electric vehicles after the industry warned that the plan would lead to factory closures and job losses without stronger demand from consumers.

DB2

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Speaking of EV targets, In 2022 Governor Baker of Massachusetts signed a bill requiring all new vehicles sold in Massachusetts must be electric by 2035. In this article on EV chargers we read…

According to the U.S. Department of Energy Massachusetts has 73,800 registered EVs, accounting for just 1.3% of all vehicles in the state. Hybrid vehicle registrations, which combine electric motors and gasoline engines, surged by 26% in 2024 to nearly 224,000.

Despite this growth, the state faces significant challenges in meeting its ambitious climate goals, which call for 200,000 fully electric vehicles on the road next year and 900,000 by 2030.

DB2

A guy on youtube recently did a piece on Ford Europe closing factories and laying off thousands, in Germany, blaming the German government and the withdrawal of EV subsidies.

This was my response:

The German government ended it’s EV subsidy in December last year. EV sales fell 37%. There is a lot more than that wrong with Ford, even though, true to their US talking points, they are blaming the government. The bottom line is Ford Europe is loading it’s cars up with tech gimmicks that most people don’t care about (VW is doing the same thing), they are charging more for their cars than most people are willing to pay (VW has “upmarket” pretensions too), and their quality sux (as does VW’s these days) So both Ford EU, and VW, are on the same trajectory, as if they were both given the same playbook by McKinsey.

Steve

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These days politicians in many countries are putting ideology above economics.

The Captain

Here in the UK the government will be fining car companies for producing cars that people want and forcing car companies to make cars that people don’t want.

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One of the talking heads on youtube is atwitter this morning that his sources at Stellantis are telling him Ram 2500/3500 production is moving from Saltillo, Mexico, to the plant in Warren, MI. This all has a familiar ring to me, so I checked to see if my memory was defective. Nope, my memory is fine. This news was reported in Motor Trend, and the Detroit News, January 11, 2018.

Instead of doing what Marchionne wanted to do, nearly 7 years ago, the Warren plant kept building the previous generation 1500 pickup, as the “Classic”. Stellantis stopped building the “Classic” a couple months ago, so now the way is clear to move Heavy Duty pickup production to Warren, as was planned, years ago.

Notice the other thing the article says, that the Saltillo plant, which currently builds vans, as well as the HD pickups, will be used to build more “commercial vehicles”, for export elsewhere in the world, because Mexico has more trade agreements than the US. So? Stellantis blaming the government for closing the Luton plant is drivel. The company has been planning on increasing van production in Saltillo for years. That plan is now being executed, and Luton is the loser.

Steve

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More job cuts

Click bait headlines, but he’s quite entertaining:

Ford is laying off in Germany as well as the UK. Ford is failing in Europe, having lost significant market share over several years.

Steve

iCE engines and transmissions have many mechanical parts. Their manufacture requires extra plants and workers. Battery electrics have fewer parts requiring fewer plants.

Transition to battery electrics means fewer jobs. Made worse by loss of market share by traditional majors.

How will consumer preferences for hybrids affect these numbers? Smaller batteries and smaller ICE engine. Fewer parts?

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That’s interesting and something that I’ve never thought about.

Isn’t it even more dramatic than that? ICE engines not only have a whole lot of parts, each of which could be made wherever, but all those parts are logically grouped in subassemblies which also could be assembled wherever. Plus, my impression is that one is likely to make most or all of most batteries in one facility, possibly two.

Sure parts like transmissions and engines have lots of individual pieces. Each must be manufactured and assembled at plants before shipment to the assembly plant. Its those other plants that are likely to be replaced. Battery production and likely the electric motors in battery EV, but many fewer parts than in an ICE.

The ICE that runs the generator in a hybrid is likely to be smaller with fewer parts. Can run at constant speed rather than a range of rpms. Linkage to generator may have flywheel and some sort of clutch but much simpler than a transmission. And all of the drive train parts are not needed.