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Yes, many economists and labor market experts anticipate that layoffs will remain elevated or increase in 2026, marking a transition from the post-pandemic hiring boom to a more cautious, “restructuring” environment.

While the labor market is not expected to “fall off a cliff,” the overall trend is described as a cooling market characterized by “low-hiring” and “low-firing,” creating a “jobless expansion” where unemployment is expected to drift upwards.

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And this soon after many employers struggled to find applicants for their job openings. Yes, some layoffs are in the news but it sounds like much of this adjustment will be by attrition.

Ford and GM report finding people to work on vehicles in their shops is difficult. Typical pay is $120K/yr. Takes years to learn the procedures but cannot fill their vacancies.

Jobs are still out there for those willing to work (and train for the job). You wonder how many white collar paper shufflers are willing to train for a blue collar job that pays well. I’m familiar with college graduates willing to work an assembly line job. Good pay, benefits and few worries.

Some economists are expecting inflation to rise into mid year because of the tariffs. Then inflation should fall away.

My thinking is that unemployment will rise as all of that proceed.