Jobs report... it is really bad

Investment Analysis Clubs Macro Economic Trends and Risks
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I have been saying job situation is pretty bad and the report is masking it… so we had -92K, when 55K is expected and on top of that, -69K revision from Dec and Jan.

Job market is very, very bad. Administration is not accepting it, firing the BLS chief is not going to change it.

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How bad? Since obliteration day, us has not added any jobs and lost net -20K jobs. It is stunning that democrats are not talking about this… Trump’s greatest achievement is he overwhelms opponents into talking about any one issue by creating gazillion issues…

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I perfer Challenger, Gray, and Christmas numbers because I think the numbers are untampered with and no model is used.

The hiring number is even worse. It is perhaps more important.

This is the AI summation of their report.

In February 2026, U.S. employers announced 48,307 job cuts, a 55% decrease from the 108,435 cuts in January and a 72% drop from February 2025. While layoffs plunged, hiring plans remained weak despite a month-over-month increase.

[image]Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc. +3

Layoff Summary

  • Monthly Total: 48,307 job cuts announced in February 2026.
  • Year-to-Date (YTD): 156,742 cuts were recorded for January–February 2026, the lowest two-month total since 2022.
  • Primary Reasons:
    • Closings: 10,736 cuts due to store or unit closures.
    • Market/Economic Conditions: 10,114 cuts.
    • Artificial Intelligence (AI): 4,680 cuts (approx. 10% of monthly total).
  • Key Industry Impact:
    • Technology: Led with 11,039 cuts in February (33,330 YTD, up 51% YoY).
    • Education: 5,417 cuts, driven by school district budget approvals and declining enrollment.
    • Industrial Manufacturing: 4,109 cuts (5,685 YTD, up 143% YoY).
    • Transportation: 31,702 cuts YTD, an 872% increase compared to 2025.

[image]Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc. +9

Hiring Summary

  • Monthly Total: 12,755 hiring plans announced in February.
  • Growth Trend: While this is a 140% increase from January’s record low of 5,306, it is 63% lower than February 2025.
  • Year-to-Date (YTD): 18,061 hiring plans, down 56% from the same period in 2025 and the lowest YTD total in over a decade.
  • Leading Sectors:
    • Automotive: 8,300 hiring plans.
    • Insurance: 2,500 hiring plans.
    • Aerospace/Defense: 1,200 hiring plans.

[image]Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc. +5

For more detailed breakdowns, you can access the Challenger, Gray & Christmas February Report.

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Here is a chart… Even accounting for post-COVID gains… the current administration is actively destroying the economy and jobs… yet markets are high…

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The direction is a great depression.

Markets won’t be high for long. The motion might be slow, but it is downward.

Unemployment and deflation will spiral.

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We continue to speak of affordability. Rising unemployment reduces wage pressure. That is a step in the right direction.

Meanwhile GDP continues to increase. Economy is still healthy but slowing. Big stimulus coming from Big Beautuful Bill. Will it be enough? Voters and politicians seem not to notice that most people are keeping their jobs while they complain abt high prices.

Some say stock prices are high already and a big correction is due. No one knows when. Maybe not now.

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Unemployed people cannot afford anything or reduced wages accentuates affordability. Don’t argue companies cost come down and thus price… that model is broken for a while. Companies margin is in secular uptrend.

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Bush I zero job creation
Bush II zero job creation
Trump 1st term zero job creation
Trump 2nd term year 1 zero job creation
Seeing a trend?

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T2 zero? Not so fast negative job growth on tap

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When jobs are plentiful job seekers can be more selective. When they are scarce they are less so. And people griping about inflation might be an economic indicator. When jobs are scarce price gripes make less news.

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What are you trying to say?

When people are gainfully employed, they will grudgingly pay the higher price, and when they don’t have job, they will stop complaining and will accept it gladly???

Either I am missing your post completely or it makes no sense.

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Paul,

The best editor…hahaha…because I suck at it…is not redundant.

When people make a lot of money inflation goes up. Now things are changing fast.

No redundancy.

adding if we gain economies of scale deflationary pressures enter the global economy. This would happen with significant tax hikes on corporations and the top bracket.

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