So…what I am wondering is whether 2022 will go down in the record books as a ‘Lost Year’ and/or, worse than that, extend into multiple years. The answer to that particular angst is, in my estimation, ungraspable; which is to say, how could anyone possible know? After thinking about it for quite a while - at least 5 minutes of silent concentration this morning - interrupted as it was by a call to breakfast. In this household if you’re late the best of it might well be gone: best hurry along.
What I am referring to here is the market’s treatment of Growth - which, we can all pretty much agree has been rather harsh of late. More to the point, if you are Growth investor then the old saying comes to mind: Live by the sword - die by the sword - such as that old saying might, or might not, apply.
So how to possibly know:
William James once said - somewhere or other, “If you wish to upset the law that all crows are black, you mustn’t seek to show that no crows are: it is enough if you prove one single crow to be white.” Now please don’t hold me accountable for this as an exact quote…but to my credit I certainly think I have the gist of it. So what does this have anything to do with investing writ large or our primary focus: is growth dead for some extended period?
Note: For all I know - in this most corrupted of days and ages, that someone, somewhere may well draw the conclusion that William was a very racially biased guy and that the very pursuit of the “white crow” might in fact be related to some heinous racist bigotry and or plot of devious intent. Hmmmmm.
Ok…moving forward at a glacial pace, the thinking here is that if there might be a single Growth stock, not yet injured nor taken to the market woodshed - then perhaps there is hope for them all? Sounds reasonable - and yet, there are potholes, dead-ends and completely diversionary cul-de-sacs looping in and out and all around this process.
So how about this: There may, or may not, be an extended growth stock shunning to come; however, regardless, in stormy weather there are always periods of intermittent ok-ness between downpours. Or some such. Besides, this is way to much to task - very complicated stuff - to ask any one amateur investor to figure out. Sooo…
Instead I think I’ll take the Henry 17 varmint rifle out to the land and de-varment it. Unfortunately, the land has been de-varmented for quite some time now and all I will probably encounter is the odd angry Jay or Mockingbird - perhaps an irritated squirrel. Could stumble onto a feral hog - but the 17 would be like chunking spit balls at it.
So - is growth dead? Nah…down for sure but not for the count. Tables show that historically growth does not fair all that bad in recessions and that before we get to that point they do very well indeed. that is too say - the in-between area. And I’ve never seen a white crow either - but I am pretty sure there are some out there…somewhere. I guess…maybe. Who knows unless you actually have seen one?
All the Best,