Graydrake’s Portfolio Summary for September
BACKGROUND
· 21 month member of this community
· Adopted HG as a defining strategy for an entire account with performance reports cut and pastes directly out of this Schwab account.
· At 85 I acknowledge some personal weaknesses, and without challenging the fundamental value of Saul’s concepts, I am required to violate the Knowledge Base heavy reliance on memory of conference call data.
· I am currently using Stock Rover as data source primarily because they have provided info on the last 5 quarters and their data is downloadable. I maintain an actively managed watch list of 150 to 175 tickers, which are hypergrowth now or in the past year. Excel sorts expose trends that drive further investigation of new or existing tickers. I use ev/sales to eliminate hypergrowth tickers with too great a risk/return ratio.
· I find Jamin Ball’s weekly missive valuable for defining companies whose growth – value ratio is compelling when compared others in the cloud arena.
· Philosophy
o Hypergrowth minimum targets – 35% annual and 9% quarterly. Quarterly trends are important.
o Great companies are not always great investments – so for entry I attempt to assure irrational growth exuberance has not driven value out of a rational range. The comparative range of tickers being held in the community can be 100 or even 500 to 1.
o Before entry I always go to AI with a standard inquiry to confirm the flavor of most recent corporate guidance/enthusiasm and analyst projections about next quarter and year
o In my investing arena, value and trends are more important than for others here, so I rarely enter when price is above resistance on 25% Linear Regression Channel, and usually begin aggressive trimming when prices approach resistance on the 100% Linear Regression Channel.
o For most of my time here I maintained a database with Excel analyzing my data source’s watchlist metrics for compliance with my targets, but text formatting problems in Excel have forced abandonment at the current time. All the time spent on this issue in Sep is probably reflected in my account performance deterioration.
o I am not able to compete with the level of expertise on company details revealed by members, so my comments will surround tickers not commonly held here or my personal use of corporate metrics to drive entry/exit decisions.
SEPTEMBER SUMMARY
In late September my monthly return slipped from 14.2% to 5.5%, making it the first time my monthly returns slipped below SPY and QQQ in an up month.
REFLECTIONS ON MY PROCESS WITH A NEW TICKER HERE AND A RETURNEE
IAG – a ticker I have not seen mentioned here. It is a gold miner (a Knowledge Base outcast) but showing up in my growth screen in June 24 at $3.50 per share. I entered based on growth data, and while I am not recommending adding here; but growth metrics, inflation potential and the probability of falling interest rates continue to support IAG’s price. IAG has been one of the few holdings I have not trimmed as it approached 100% Linear Regression Channel resistance.
FOUR – An entry this week based on a combination of growth current and projected growth metrics meeting personal targets, coupled with compelling values for current growth expectations.
Thanks to all the contributions made by Saul and his followers.
Respectfully submitted, Gray
Please let me know if there is a better way to attach my portfolio data
