So yes, autonomous driving will mean a lot of things to a lot of people. Things we may not even have thought about.
Tinker,
How about a micro distillery and bud bar. You drink and toke here, we auto drive you home.
Sweet, but the potato chips are 5 dollars a bag in the car.
Cheers
Qazulight
I have several issues with the original article
Just about everyone lives in a recently built dwelling with individual per unit climate control systems. Why? Heck, the buildings could have ‘central systems’ but now most don’t. You’ve got your own a/c.
the author also talked about 10:1 differences in cost. I really doubt it
Also…any EV or AEV is still loaded with the same dozen systems - steering and wheels and suspension to start…then a/c and compressors and heating systems. Then audio enterntainment (which is one of the biggest repair items on cars)… and seats and power windows and defrosters and windshield wipers… all of which are going to crap out long before anyone gets to 500,000 miles
You ‘rent out’ your AEV or EV, thinking magically it good for 500,000 miles…and you’ll be seriously disappointed.
My 1990 Honda went 17 years and 170,000 miles. typical 10,000 miles per year for most drivers. Did it crap out? No…but the seats were shot from lots of butt time. The carpets were a disaster area after 17 years of daily use. everything else worked - original a/c, suspension - although it needed new rubber bushing parts - it wasn’t as good as ‘new’ - power windows - all good.
But you still , even on a EV, have to replace tires and windshield wipers and likely fix power windows and audio systems and a/c and a whole bunch of other stuff.
Then add it complicated and high power electronics - battery cooling systems - high power charging systems.
Tesla just announced plans to open 300 MORE service centers and hundreds of mobile service centers to fix…EVs…
I’ve seen 30 years of hype about the ‘smart home’. Oh, call home and turn on the living room lights, adjust the blinds, turn on the oven for dinner, let the dog out … How many people here have a ‘smart home’ with blinds they can adjust from anywhere? or even turn and off a light in the house? Open doors remotely to let in the Maytag repairman service guy?
After 10 years of hype, about the only thing folks have is an electronic thermostat…and most of them not ‘net controlled’.
Wow…7 seconds of warning…duh! You’re going 65 mph…and suddenly the car is in a construction zone at 55, you haven’t been paying attention, you’re reading or watching a video, and suddenly your Tesla gives an alarm - it’s confused - it takes you a few seconds to look out the window - it’s raining - it’s night - and you’re confused - suddenly the lane ends, you go off the concrete on the bridge 150 feet up and your Tesla suddenly is airborne… oops, it missed the ‘lane ends’ in 500 feet sign - merge left… try it some day as a passenger at night - on a rainy night - and tell me how many seconds it takes to take in where you are at, what the situation is, and how to respond…especially if there is an 18 wheeler just to your left preventing emergency lane change - for which you aren’t prepared for either…
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As to sitting in your car going to the beach home 8 hours away…it’s still sitting in the car for 8 hours. I can’t go 8 hours without a pee break. Neither can your EV…it’s got 200 mile range, so you’d likely have to stop at least 3 times…for 15 minutes a time or more…and maybe you’re 3rd in line at the ‘pump’…45 minute wait - times 3…and of course, you’re car is smart enough to know that, but you still sit in the same seat in the same car…because - it might get confused… and then you have the return trip at the end of the weekend. Dream on. But let us assume that’s the norm…so everyone is letting their EV take them to the beach on weekends…100,000 of them…hmmm…traffic jams? maybe 20 cars waiting at the ‘pump’ in front of you? 15-20 minute recharge time?
Volvo made a big deal about EVs…I don’t think it’s delivered one of them yet, and if you read the ‘footnote’ that EV deal includes hybrids.
I suspect a lot of hybrids will get made first. Millions of them. Just so folks can go to the beach…or to MT for vacation…in the boondocks where there are no EV charge points…and they’ll have ‘smart systems’ like collision avoidance and better ‘cruise control’ and forward collision radars/lidars…
Right now, people can ‘save’ bucks on gasoline by buying hybrids. Maybe 1000 a year. How are hybrid sales? 30% of the market? Gimme a break…
Others with 3 or 4 cars and 2 car garages - houses with teens…same problem…park on street…all over suburbia…
Until the 15 minute charge time arrives and you can get a charge at the corner ‘gas station’ …half your market is gone. Same for anyone wanting to travel.
No, I don’t think it will be ‘exponential’ as in doubling and doubling and doubling from 5 to 10 to 20 to 40 to 80% in 8 years…
but I could be wrong…but I’m still watching a 5 year old TV set…living in a 27 year old house…with original carpets and paint and wallpaper…(new furnace and a/c though)…27 year old refrigerator. 10 year old car with 50K miles - hybrid. 43 mpg around town.
I do have a cell phone and smart phone and remember when they cost $3000 for a bag phone and $200 a month - heck, I designed systems…but now you can get service for $10/month - or $25 a month for more than most people talk…
when EVs cost $2500 each - let me know…
and of course, for business and families - cellphones save backtracking, add $$ to the bottom line real quick.l…and convenience.
for most people, the main factor in buying a new car is the initial price. Right now gas operating costs is not that big a deal. Heck, 200 miles a week - 30-40 mpg - at 2 bucks a gallon…not that big a deal. Maybe only 100 miles a week. five bucks a week. Once a year oil changes - big deal.
Now you buy an EV…but it doesn’t cost another $2000 for a charger for a hybrid or gas engine car…right? and that charger will likely be obsolete in 10 years. If it lasts that long in the 117 degrees heat during the Phoenix summers for 10 years in your garage… You still use the charger for your cellphone from 10 years ago? or from your PC from 12 years ago?
t.
Thanks telegraph, you put a lot of my concerns and skepticism very elegantly.
Saul
Telegraph,
Some good points but a few things you overlooked.
One biggie is how an electric car enables more space in the interior of the car. The engine is tiny, about where the transmission box is. There is nothing in the hood nor the trunk and this allows for much more room in the interior. The Tesla S for example has the same cargo space and interior room as an SUV.
Second, autonomous driving alllows for thisblarger interior space to be designed for comfort or utility and not as much for driving. Enabling one to have a comfortable lounge space. Heck, I do most of my work at my at home bar.
Third, YES there will be stops. Do you think an ADD quack like me w a bladder the size of a thimble is going to work 8 hours straight? Heck no, never.
Fourth, not clear on the traffic problem but not a big d al as we have traffic now that the autonomous vehicle can now deal with.
But long a short Level 5 is still some time away, but if it were here today the long weekend vacations is an enticing reality. Yes I’d work there and back while my vehicle did the work.
Tinker
Yes, I’m sure it is coming - but I’m not sure how fast will rush out to buy fully A/V vehicles…
The link below is to an interesting On Point podcast that discussed the adoption issue. There was a thread that centered on when autonomous vehicles will have to be adopted due to the significant cost benefits that will be provided by doing so, putting those that do not adopt at such a disadvantage that they will be economically forced to adopt faster.
http://www.wbur.org/onpoint/2017/06/23/pulling-out-of-car-ow…
This is probably a stronger influence on adoption than choice.
DJ
the cost of maintenance will not be that much cheaper.
I’m only one person, but that’s not my experience. I have a 2008 Honda Odyssey. It’s great utilitarian car that is very reliable – we love it – but it does need regular maintenance. It just turned over 100K so I had to have:
$135 Power Steering Flush
$ 63 Brake Fluid Flush
$107 Transmission Flush
$1134 Water Pump & Timing Belt replacement
+tax = 1582.
This is on the high side, but there is something to be done most years.
Conversely, I also have a 2013 Nissan Leaf SL. I bought it used 1.5 years ago. It’s amazing in every way except it can only go 85 miles on a charge. Which works great for my 20 mile each way commute, and errands. I charge it at night from a regular outlet with the trickle charger that was included with the car. If I need to go farther I take the Odyssey.
I just went to the Nissan Dealer for yearly maintenance on the Leaf. They performed a bunch of inspections, and charged me $20 to rotate the tires. That’s it. To tie it back to stocks, I think dealers are going to be in bad shape in a few years, like the Maytag repair man.
Now the Odyssey is 5 years older so it’s not a perfect comparison, I get that, and some maintenance doesn’t go away just because it’s an EV, I get that, and there is also risk that I’ll have to replace the battery at some point (though I’m still at 12/12 bars so it’s likely a long ways off), but for the moment the difference between the two is quite large, setting aside the savings on gas which are substantial compared to electric where I live.
Not having cylinders/fuel injectors/exhaust/timing belts etc seems to be a lot simpler, mechanically. Brake discs/pads get used a lot less due to regenerative braking (my 2004 Prius had stock brake pads at 100K when I sold it).
Overall, time will tell, but my money is that EVs cost a lot less and will prove more reliable/less expensive due to fewer moving parts/fluids.
In the end most people get a new car every 5 years or so. There are those who like to maintain their car and drive it into the ground, there are others who may want a new car every year (both extremes) most people give in to the temptation and get a new car every 5 years or so.
Within a 5 year time period the cost of maintenance is not going to be significantly different.
A Tesla S is minimum $600 per year maintenance, for the once a year required check up.
However, pound for pound, yes, there is no doubt that the EV is superior to the ICE in most ways. The only thing holding the ICE up is convenience of gas, and century of embedded use. The EV is clearly superior in almost every way.
Despite this, EVs are still what, 1 or 2% of the market, at best, and except for Tesla, are being sold at a large loss to enable sales of ICE SUVs.
Tinker
Tinker that Tesla inspection is voluntary ,not required.
I have had mine 3 years, finally did the first inspection only because I was going on a long trip.
I know that I started this Semi-OT thread, and it’s been a great discussion, but after 28 posts on the thread we are moving into personal anecdotes, and starting to repeat the same ideas and points of view over and over again.
It’s probably time to move on to discussing the companies (Tesla, Nvidia, etc) as investments, and TO EASE OUT OF THIS THREAD.
THANKS,
Saul