Here’s an excerpt from what I considered a brilliant article on Seeking Alpha (free access to the public: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4086577-autonomous-driving-…
"I’d expect the ability of autonomous driving to penetrate the broader transportation industry to be much slower than tech evangelists believe at the moment. Because that’s always the case. Technology isn’t adopted when it’s ready. People change slower than technology does - and the faster technology changes, the greater the gap becomes.
…The problem seems particularly acute in autonomous driving. A massive number of customers have little to no interest in having their cars drive themselves. There are millions of drivers who will refuse to cede control of their vehicle to a ‘robot’. There are many more who simply enjoy driving.
There will be significant pushback from libertarians and government/corporate skeptics (both on the left and right) who are fearful of having every car being tracked at all times. There are significant, and legitimate, concerns about IT security: if Home Depot can’t protect its consumers’ credit cards, how sure are we that Uber can protect the code that is driving vehicles at 65 miles per hour?
And drivers likely will have a difficult time trusting robots, no matter what the data shows (or how many lives technologists correctly argue could be saved). …One single fatality from a car operating under Tesla’s Autopilot drew national attention - even though the subsequent investigation showed the driver had at least seven seconds to respond. Does anyone believe that the American public - or the rest of the world - is ready to happily hand over their keys and sleep in the backseat of a robot car?
In terms of so-called Level 4 autonomous driving, these issues are somewhat less pressing. Drivers can turn those features off, or at the least still drive in the way in which they are accustomed. But in terms of the grand bull case for many stocks with opportunities in autonomous driving, it’s Level 5 - purely self-driving - where the major opportunity supposedly lies. That’s the ‘driverless future’, where the huge disruption would occur.
And it’s there that there will be an enormous conflict between what the technology will offer and what consumers are willing to accept. Anecdotally, I’d argue that the majority of drivers I know, if offered a Level 5 vehicle, would say, “No thanks.” More than a few would say, “You can take my steering wheel out of my cold, dead hands.” It will take years, if not decades, to change those attitudes.
That’s years, if not decades, waiting for these grand profits, which means they’re discounted even further in the future. And, as such, I’d argue that pricing in benefits from a true ‘driverless future’ into any stock at the moment is close to foolish."