Very interesting study of the forecast adoption of Transportation as a Service
and use of electric vehicles for that service. Oil demand to peak in 2020 and
decline rapidly. Many fewer cars needed, less auto service, less insurance, etc, etc.
…In this intensely competitive environment, businesses will offer services at a price trending toward cost. As a result, their eets will quickly transition from human-driven, internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles to autonomous electric vehicles (A-EV) because of key cost factors, including ten times higher vehicle-utilization rates, 500,000-mile vehicle lifetimes (potentially improving to 1 million miles by 2030), and far lower maintenance, energy, nance and insurance costs.
ê As a result, transport-as-a-service (TaaS) will offer vastly lower-cost transport alternatives — four to ten times cheaper per mile than buying a new car and two to four times cheaper than operating an existing vehicle in 2021…
…Oil demand will peak at 100 million barrels per day by 2020, dropping
to 70 million barrels per day by 2030. That represents a drop of 30 million barrels in real terms and 40 million barrels below the Energy Information Administration’s current “business as usual” case. This will have a catastrophic effect on the oil industry through price collapse
(an equilibrium cost of $25.4 per barrel), disproportionately impacting different companies, countries, oil fields and infrastructure depending on their exposure to high-cost oil.
The impact of the collapse of oil prices throughout the oil industry value chain will be felt as soon as 2021.
In the U.S., an estimated 65% of shale oil and tight oil — which under a “business as usual” scenario could make up over 70% of the U.S. supply in 2030 — would no longer be commercially viable.
Approximately 70% of the potential 2030 production of Bakken shale oil would be stranded under a 70 million barrels per day demand assumption.
Infrastructure such as the Keystone XL and Dakota Access pipelines would be stranded, as well…
You suppose the Saudis’ see this coming as well, floating their trillion $$ IPO to the world.
Get while the gettings good!
JT ~ Zero direct Oil exposure.
Should be good for plastics, airlines…