Green

It is nice seeing a bunch of green today (crap am I jinxing it…) It has just been brutal this month. Hopefully when our companies start reporting soon we will get good news and some positive action. I did sink quite a bit new money into the account as we moved down to these levels… hope this is the bottom.

I hear ya, but maybe adopting a new view point might help. *:

Paraphrasing WEB: Investing is the only endeavor I’m aware of in which so many participants do not appreciate buying assets on sale.

The further we go down now, the better our chances of nice gains in the future. The less we go down now, the more likely that our gains for the year (and any future length of time) will be less than satisfactory. With this in mind, the questions we must ask ourselves are: 1) To nibble or not (and when?), and 2) At what point(s) do we go “all in?”

Hope that helps. Sometimes, especially when times are tough, attitude is everything, for investing and happiness. It’s understandable that the two often go hand in hand. Might as well be happy, right?

Best,

Dan

  • Assumptions
  1. One has cash on the sidelines now. (Unfortunate if not true, and we soldier on.)
  2. One doesn’t need money from investments this year. (foolish if not the case, and that offers us a critical lesson to learn here.)
  3. If either condition is not true, the entire discussion is moot.
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Buying stocks at or near their all-time highs can be attributed to FOMO or greed.

But so can trying to buy at the absolute bottom.

Geez, there’s so much on sale right now, I would be buying in large quantities if I wasn’t fully invested already. Why all the angst about nibble now versus nibble later? You can’t really go wrong.

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20 minutes left - this has been a heart attack day!

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I Have been nibbling for a few weeks now, just buying a little be each day (kind of an average cost buy in attempt). Who knows where the bottom is.

Yes there is a lot on sale right now, but who knows if this stuff is going to hit the clearance isle at some point. The bigger the sale, the bigger the return later (hopefully).

Signed…
Bargain hunter wanting to shop the clearance isle. =)

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Question: Why all the angst about nibble now versus nibble later? You can’t really go wrong.
Answer: A LOT!

I thought I was bagging a bargain buying NET at 160 when it fell from 220… I am 50% down on that purchase. I say the market has more to drop until there is capitulation and there are no punters to buy the dip

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Skipped WhackAMoling yesterday and wished I hadn’t. Also the last 4 days.

Today, whacked me some serious change on the assumption that my big greens would sink early on in the day.

Did not all you see this?
–Yoda

Hello Horseman,

I would be buying in large quantities if I wasn’t fully invested already.

Methinks that’s unlikely. I trust you wouldn’t, because you would be (and evidently are) ALREADY fully invested. Otherwise, you wouldn’t have suspected there was “angst” regarding timing of new purchases.


Why all the angst about nibble now versus nibble later?

No angst, my friend. But when most all of one’s holdings’ prices swing up 5-12% one day, and down 5-12% the next, guess what. It matters when you buy.


You can’t really go wrong.

Maybe so (I disagree) but you could surely be “more right” by choosing buy points with careful forethought. Also, and most important, there has not been a time so far in 2022, when you would have bought most ANY stock at its low! So the ultimate winners have resisted the urge (FOMO) to buy so far. Not necessarily angst, just good (or, yes, lucky–does it really matter?) port management. Either way, I think it would be hard to make a good argument against those who have waited to buy so far having made the “right” decision, wouldn’t you agree?


Personally, even after making several hopefully careful, calculated buys recently, I’m down 21%+ YTD, meaning I must I must first gain 26.6%, before I can even start over at zero. So maybe I can be forgiven for not putting everything in the market at the first sign of a sale. Or, maybe not. Is that angst? Don’t know, don’t care. But seriously, many thanks for your concern.

Best and good luck to all!

Dan
• nibbling because any large drop may be the last in this series
• not “all in” due to past FOMO lessons learned and profits lost
• includes “cash on hand” as an investing principle
• not attempting to sway anyone’s opinion
• intends to foster zero angst

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• intends to foster zero angst

None fostered here.
I enjoy any and all of your posts.

Just sold condo. Thinking of putting it into Saul’s top 3.

What me worry?

MoneySlob

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Wow, MS, I’m surprised. You seem to always be traveling the planet, so I kind of pictured you as being single and living in a tent on some island beach near the equator.

Suppose now you’ll be buying your own island?

Hey! I have a nice island in Nebraska for sale, if you’re interested. Surfing is only C+, but sharks are about as rare as underpaid CEOs. Let me know, dude!

-D
waiting for an invitation to Slob Island

Hey Dan,

I have been sitting on 100% invested holdings all the way down and intend to hold all the way back up. It is gut wrenching for sure. The only moves I have made are those that I would have made anyways regardless of market action.

I understand your reluctance to jump right in. This drop has gone on for far longer than most of us expected. What was our expectation anyways? Probably a 30% drop that seems to happen once or twice a year. Most of those at Saul’s and many others have probably learned to withstand 30% drops by now, so the current market correction naturally has to be greater in order to reach a state of capitulation. If the majority are guessing zig, the market zags. LoL.

So who knows where the bottom really is. We will probably recognise it in the rearview mirror. I like to keep tabs on what the guys on the Mechanical Investing Board are up to. But their bottom detectors are mainly for the broad market, not SaaS/Tech, unfortunately.

So isn’t the sensible choice to dollar-cost-average your way in? Of course you have to choose when to start and when to stop, so you’re still picking “the bottom”, but you don’t need to be as accurate this way.

5th

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Hi Horseman,

I didn’t mean to jump on you, it just sounded like you didn’t know why anyone would “nibble” and I thought I’d try to explain my reasoning. Obviously, you already knew everything I listed.

I’ve lost enough lately for a decade’s worth of living expenses (including travel and “fun”) so, although I’m not concerned, I feel I need to be a bit conservative with purchases this year unless I want to stay home and stare at the boob tube in retirement.

For almost 2 years now, I have thought the market desperately NEEDED a major reset. Obviously, that didn’t give me a nickel’s worth of a hint at when that reset was coming. If I had to guess, I think we’ve actually touched the bottom, but I wouldn’t bet much on that.

Oh, wait! Come to think of it, I guess I have bet a lot on it! But as you said, we don’t have to get it perfect either, and we won’t. But man, I hope I’m not too far off. :slight_smile:

Dan

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