Anyone shopping today?

Investment Analysis Clubs Macro Economic Trends and Risks
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I’m not sure if this is the right board. Today’s -3.5% drop on the Nasdaq took it to a year low measured in non-US currencies such as euros, pounds etc. I did a little shopping even though I foresee things being cheaper still later on, probably. Can’t take the risk of missing the bottom by over-greeding. As Howard Marks says, you can be the best defensive investor in the world, perfect at getting out at the top, but if you never buy back in till the recovery’s there, you might as well just stay in the index 100% of the time.

Did anyone else go shopping?

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Not yet for me. I absolutely think that there is more blood to run in the streets. I have not yet heard or seen capitulation. I’m waiting for the BIG FLUSH when those that are in the game no longer want to be in and SELL SELL SELL. In my investing eyes, we’re not there yet.

'38Packard

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I’ve been shopping on most of the big dips already. Means I didn’t get in on the bottom bottom bottom, but I got more stock much lower than the avg cost I had in many positions.

Been playing the last few months with options, calls mostly, because the brief rallies are getting pulled back on a regular basis. That cash is going straight into my high conviction positions all along. That allows me to not play the ‘is it the bottom now’ game.

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Not yet for me. I absolutely think …

I agree.

I have not yet heard or seen capitulation.

I agree.

I’m waiting for the BIG FLUSH when those that are in the game no longer want to be in and SELL SELL SELL. In my investing eyes, we’re not there yet.

So am I. But I’m not waiting like that with ALL my money. Nosirree. I learned that lesson the hard way, 2-3 times in the last 10 years.

No way do I want a re-run of 2016-2020’s ‘we’ve had 7 years of 0% rates, but now the economy is doing good, surely they will end 0% interest rates at some point…’ 4 years out of the market including the 2018 dip… which I also failed to buy.

No way do I want to repeat my horrifying failure in the covid crash - didn’t buy a darned thing, I was about 3-4% from going all in at the actual bottom! But no, I wanted to see the look of absolute defeat and submission in the market maker’s eyes when I proudly took their shares, or at the very least, a statistically normal bear market taking into context a 100-year crisis.

So close to an amazing timing success. 3-4%! But in fact, that 3-4% separated success and absolute, total failure, followed by a horrifying bull rally that made me nauseous for 2 years!

So I’m keeping something back for the big dipper. Especially since, if I can only see 2-3 shares that are decent value right now, that means, we’re still far too high.

But I’m putting in a meaningful amount at this point, in case we get a horrifying kangaroo market of bear rallies and inflation, that ‘never gets cheap enough’ while inflation ruins me steadily over a period of years.

I mean consider: Google is 42% down from peak, and there’s some earnings and inflation to add since then. It was far from being the most overpriced stock in the market to begin with.

I feel like I’m ‘over-greeding’ if I ask for much more for 100% of my money.

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The markets will drop. They wont rise.

Not till 2024. We are echoing 1948 on the Dow.

The Millennials are eating the Boomers alive.

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I did not shop for deals. I will start averaging some of my excess cash on a monthly basis into my battered etfs sometime next spring now that the Fed has made them more affordable. Don’t fight the Fed.

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Here and there. Since I primarily deal with undervalued dividend paying stocks, don’t necessarily have to wait to buy the dips because they are already down. Although I occasionally get a nice surprise and back the truck up.

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