Gregg Warren - Morningstar - BRK/B Fair Value estimate $370/share

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I agree there has been surprisingly little discussion to the Alleghany acquisition. And the key man that came with the deal. The guy Warren speaks highly of. Cant remember his name at the moment.

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Joe Brandon, I believe. I know WEB and Bloomstran feel he will be a great fit behind Ajit.

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Possible successor to Ajit?

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gotta believe that was in the calculus…

yes, Joe Brandon. thanks.

I just searched on Google for Joe Brandon (does anyone know how old he is?) and came across this article.
It obviously did not take long for both of them to decide to go ahead. Just shows how Buffett does deals.

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re: Gregg Warren FV Estimate.

In very very round numbers, shareholder equity dropped $50billion from 12/31/21 to 9/30/22, yet he believes fair value has increased over $100billion? Call me skeptical.

I would be inclined to believe that fair value has increased by some amount from 12/31/21 to 9/30/22. I would posit that the drop in shareholder equity is not permanent, as retained earnings will eventually increase beyond their 12/31/21 level once the economy levels out. Also, there’s the opportunity to invest cash in companies trading at depressed levels, which increases shareholders equity in the long run. So there’s some correlation between a drop in shareholder’s equity actually making the company more valuable long-term, no?

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“drop in shareholder equity is not permanent” - true, but I don’t think it justifies a huge increase in Fair Value.

“opportunity to invest cash in companies trading at depressed levels” - Buffett hasn’t done this successfully for many years.

“correlation between a drop in shareholder’s equity actually making the company more valuable long-term, no?” Only if Buffett would do an AGGRESSIVE buyback, IMO. Something he hasn’t done.

My main points isn’t that Berkshire is worth less than 12/31/21, but just that its not worth drastically more than then which is what Warren is claiming.

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Via Google, I found Mr. Brandon is a youthful 63yo😁

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