Hard to remember?

Investment Analysis Clubs Saul’s Investing Discussions
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Who else finds it hard to remember just two weeks ago the day before yesterday, when some people were writing in on the board to ask whether they should sell out of everything and go into cash? When long term growth newsletters were taking on “short” ETF’s to protect themselves from a falling market? When someone on this board was suggesting maybe it was the start of a Bear Market? By coincidence, they all occurred on the bottom day for the market. It’s worth keeping that in the back of your mind the next time the market takes a little breather and you get unreasonably scared. If you’re scared, almost everyone is likely to be scared, and we probably don’t have much further to fall.

Best,

Saul

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Thanks for the reminder Saul. I was able to get in UBNT due to the discussions on your board. One of the few places I like to spend my time on the web.

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…due to the discussions on your board. One of the few places I like to spend my time on the web.

Thanks foolchandra. Nice of you to say.

Saul

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I was just figuring out where I stand for October – I tally numbers monthly – and I’m still a few percent shy of my (month-end) high at the end of August, but am nevertheless at my second-highest month overall. I’m not exactly sure where I bottomed in October without digging through a bunch of daily statements, but the S&P 500 had its lowest close on Oct 15th, and since that day I’m up about 9.5%. Interestingly, I’m only up 9.8% for the whole year, which means that if I had panicked and gone to cash at the bottom of this correction I would have missed out on my entire year’s worth of gains. It looks like that’s true of the broader market as well, which briefly dipped below it’s Jan 1 open during mid-day trading on Oct 15th, so you know a lot of folks gave up a big chunk of their gains this year. Hopefully nobody around these parts suffered that fate.

Also, just for fun, today marks the end of the “Sell in May and Go Away” period, which someone recommended doing on this board earlier in the year based on some research. Despite all the turbulence lately, the S&P 500 is up over 7.1% since its April 30th close. So, once again, it would have been a bad move. And, of course, had you pulled your money out and waited, would you now be ready to jump back in with the market back near its all-time highs? Or would you wait and potentially miss out on even more gains?

Trying to time the market can be so insidious.

Neil

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