Having fun with COVID numbers

Actually Japan, China, and Australia are wildly and widely surveilled, not to mention nearly every other country on the planet outside of Africa. YOu know how often a car accident happens in front of you? Yet we have millions of videos of them actually happening. Meteorites landing. Airplanes crashing.

Sure, they have more experience. That doesn’t preclude them jumping to a conclusion and/or making a mistake. I refer to my original thesis: if this is so astonishingly transmissible then we should have thousands, nay millions of such incidents. Surely a few would be captured besides this tiny cohort. But they’re not.

Again, my “quick google search” looked for additional examples. I spent over an hour doing so (happy to provide you the browser history.) I search Australian news sources, CDC histories, global news purveyors, blogs, and anywhere else I thought might have additional mentions. None. Not one.

Anyone can make a mistake, which is why we don’t accept a single experiment to determine the path of science, we require multiple, repeated, and repeatable experiments. In this case, that doesn’t exist.

I’m not saying “it couldn’t have happened that way.”I’m saying that “it might not”, and that with multiple other plausible explanations, this single incident would not suffice as determinative evidence.

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