Henry Blodgett thesis on Amazon - A lesson

There are many “so-called value investors, who prefer long-term buy and hold” are still dissing Henry Blodgett even today. Many in that camp are actually very short-term investors who cannot look beyond few quarters and they view that with the past few quarters GAAP results. In other words lacks complete imagination or original thinking.

What looks like short-term overvaluation ends up being long-term under-valuation.

Henry Blodget’s thesis on Amazon, particularly during his time as a prominent internet analyst, was that the company was significantly undervalued and poised for substantial growth, despite the prevailing skepticism and the early stage of the internet boom. He famously predicted in 1998 that Amazon’s stock, then trading around $240, would reach $400 within a year, a call that was initially met with disbelief but ultimately proved accurate. Blodget’s thesis was based on his belief in Amazon’s potential as a leading e-commerce player and its commitment to customer satisfaction and long-term growth, even if it meant sacrificing short-term profits.

1 Like

Just to add some context… Amazon stock split

2:1 in June 1998
3:1 in Jan 1999
2:1 in Sep 1999
20:1 in June 2022

i.e 1 share on 1998 is equal to 240 shares today, i.e., $55,200. Henry Blodgett’s thesis is wildly successful, great-call in the long-term. Most, still fail to understand, because some are blinded by their “investment-religion” and others lack basic math skills.

1 Like