Highest conviction bonds, stocks and ETFs

This is an investment board, shall we share specific investment ideas in this highly uncertain environment?

What are your highest conviction bonds, stocks and ETFs?

For me, highest conviction names and themes:

US TREAS BILL 1 YEAR TERM - high yield, backed by US, short term

MSFT - dominates software with Windows, cloud, gaming, advertising (e.g., LinkedIn, powers Netflix ad-based subscription)
SNOW - emerging cloud database software
NET - global data centers with emerging cloud software tools for web applications
TTD - upcoming software for digital ad marketplaces, especially streaming and retailer websites (e.g., Walmart)

IGV - US software index
IHI - medical devices index
QQQ - nasdaq 100 index
VIG - dividend growth index
VYM - high current dividend index

Please share ideas and I will try to compile and share the aggregate list!


Swav medical devices for calcified plaque in coronary vascular
Celh distributes energy drinks just made a deal for distribution with Pepsi
Aehr makes chips for electric cars and 5G
Crwd security in the cloud for endpoint
Upst gives personal loans and car loans, going to be rough for a couple of quarters then rebounds
Afrm BNPL, Amazon renewal coming up , may not get it, but still leader in BNPL in the United States
Going to be Non-Gaap positive at the end of the year
Tmdx New way to transport organs instead of on ICE. Able to keep more organs viable.



Agree with MSFT, QQQ, VYM. I’d add AAPL, AMZN. I’m still shying away from Saul stocks like SNOW, NET, even TTD. I’m also in FPI (Farmland), VTV (big value), and VOO (S&P 500).

I would almost argue that a large chunk of QQQ will give you some of this (AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, etc.) with increased diversity. Which is my current approach. I’m still feeling burned by last year’s approach and not quite ready to say we’re on our way back up yet.


@mostlylong, thank you for your excellent post.

I am buying shorter-term U.S. Treasury bills because the Federal Reserve has announced their plan to raise the Fed funds rate to 5% by 1Q23 (maybe 2Q23 if they slow rate hikes to 0.25%). I bought the 6 month T-Bill yesterday. The markets are expecting the Fed to cut the fed funds rate in late 2023 but the Fed has firmly resisted that story. The Fed expects to keep the fed funds rate high throughout 2023.

Inflation has been coming down on a month-by-month basis. The markets expect the Fed to succeed in bringing the long-term inflation rate to about 2%. If CPI-U inflation continues to moderate, the Treasury might be a better investment than the equivalent-maturity TIPS. But if inflation resurges the TIPS would be better than the Treasury. I am attaching the CPI index chart because that is what TIPS are actually calculated upon.

I grew up in the 1970s so I don’t have complete confidence that inflation will stay under control, especially if the Fed reduces the fed funds rate as they did in the 1970s. During the 1970s, the Fed raised interest rates, then lowered them under political pressure when inflation started to subside. Then inflation popped back again. But conditions now are different than the 1970s and the Fed is more determined.

The time to shift to longer-term bonds is when the Fed has maxed its interest rate program. OR during any crisis connected with the failure of Congress to raise the debt ceiling. IF a crisis led to sudden spikes in Treasury yields I would buy longer-term bonds. IF the 10-year TIPS yield ever rises to 2% it would be a buy signal.

If the economy slows to a “soft landing” I would buy several of the same ETFs that you mentioned, except QQQE instead of QQQ based on an analysis done by mungofitch.

To your stock list, I would consider Pharmacy benefit managers, depending on their fundamentals.

Also consider that the depth of a recession may provide a good opportunity for cyclical stocks.

But I personally will probably do a plain-vanilla S&P500 index fund (or maybe a whole-market index fund) plus VIG plus QQQE…but only after the “mungofitch 99-day rule” triggers that a new bull market has started.



I am 66 and stilill conservatively invested. My three biggest holdings are Vig, veirx and vug. I am getting ready to buy Vig and vug with my monthly SS. checks after I hear from the Fed at the end of the month. My biggest single position is actually cash. I am following the Kitces equity glide path in terms of transitioning back into equities later in retirement.