Highest conviction 'Saul stocks'

I realize folks will be posting their EOM portfolio reviews soon, but I wondered with some popular stocks of this board falling out of grace recently, which are your highest conviction ‘Saul stocks’ at the moment.

I really like Zscalar after reading more about it recently, and I know how huge network security is and will be in the future as the internet continues to grow. I’m probably one of the minority still holding my entire original SHOP position, I know there have been doubts recently but ecommerce is still a baby in my opinion. I also put a lot of value in leadership, and while Tobi is young and not a ‘seasoned CEO’, he seems to have a very good head on his shoulders.


I agree with the massive opportunity of Zscaler and have added to my position.

I too have held all of my SHOP position given the impressive reach and stickiness of their platform, and given the significant product and growth optionality that comes from it. They are most certainly set up for sustained and significant furture growth. It is the same reason why I have maintained Baozun (since last year @17/sh; “BZUN” aka the Chinese Shopify). BZUN by the way has been knocked back quite a bit lately give the China trade issues but their valuation is incredibly appealing. I have been consideting more (see https://seekingalpha.com/article/4208214-chinese-stocks-buy-…).

In addition, not a Saul stock, but FWIW I continue to maintain all of my Tesla position since 2012 (since $28/sh) and it remains >10% of my portfolio given the massive growth potential it has NOW. All of the short banter about Musk and the viability of TSLA is noise. Read these 2 articles:

  1. “Tesla, An Uncomfortable Wake-Up Call For Germany. All Hands On Deck!” https://cleantechnica.com/2018/09/25/tesla-an-uncomfortable-…

  2. “Scottish Mortgage’s Anderson defends huge Tesla stake” https://www.ftadviser.com/investment-trusts/2017/11/06/scott…

I do believe Tesla has massive growth optionality and will eventually start to skyrocket to many multiples of the >$300/sh it at now. I think Ron Baron, Catherine Wood, and the author of these articles have it right. Yes this is a capital intensive company, but they are changing everything. Look at what the other auto OEM’s are doing, and as article #1 above summarizes their efforts are late and flawed at that. and will be the low cost producer of EV and solar energy in the future. I would never bet against Elon Musk.

Finally, I am very interested to know Saul’s latest thoughts/actions regarding NTNX. Bert remains steadfastly bullish!



I’m in the same situation in a number of ways. I’ve held on to my whole SHOP position. It runs neck and neck with AMZN as my largest position. I think I turnover stocks less than many folks on this board. Part of that is that I don’t have as good a sense of timing, so I seldom sell just on valuation to put the money into something else.

I just closed a managed account and have the bulk of the cash sitting in my account. The EOM portfolio reviews often give me inspiration and ideas. I’m trying to be a little more than usually attuned to some form of relative valuation, since I have a bigger-than-average (for me) amount to invest at once, or at least, in the near term.


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I’ve just been thinking the last two days about my convictions on these growth stocks. Bear in mind, I started this path on August 1 - so I’m learning a lot about this and about my own tolerances. And in 2 months I’ve done a lot of buying, selling, trimming, adjusting as I get my head wrapped around these new companies. But… given that…

I have high conviction with MDB, SQ, NTNX and ZS.

MDB - I understand what it does and relatively convinced its going to be a force for at least several years. Maybe longer. 4.3% stake but I’m having trouble adding to my position at this valuation. Its also my best winner in the growth space.

SQ - Again, I understand the business and see it everywhere. 5.1% stake. High hopes on it. Second best winner for me in this space. Considering adding more still.

NTNX - I think this company is really on to something. I’ve bought 5 batches of this stock in 2 months and they are all underwater, one lot by -30%. I’m having a hard time adding to my 5.4% allocation however out of fear I’m chasing a falling knife by mistake. Its my worst performer.

ZS - to me, this is an obvious winner. 4.1% stake and I’m just slightly negative on my holdings.

Medium conviction growth stocks would be WIX, OKTA, TWLO and AYX. Though AYX has been a big winner for me (nearly as well as SQ).

My low conviction holding would be PSTG, which I’m considering exiting already. I also recently sold TTD and kick myself for that.



If it helps your thinking this is how I’m feeling about the Saul method stocks I am in or considering.

Current positions:-

Pure - a top 5 holding for me and keeping firm. Now profitable, high growth holding up. Very high conviction, no in intentions of selling any right now

Nutanix - One of my highest conviction stocks (top 5). We have turned the corner with hardware business model switchover, new products coming through and incredible growth rates continue - I have been adding to this position of late

The Trade Desk - Top 5 holding for me, very high conviction unless Amazon, Google and Facebook become walled gardens. Ultra high valuation, tempted to top slice on that in order to fund other purchases

Okta - 1.5% holding, reasonable conviction but not adding nor selling (see buying intentions)

MDB - 2% holding, high conviction but not adding nor selling (see buying intentions)

Square - Very high conviction - top 10 only hold 3.5%, interested in adding more given it is becoming a full service cloud partner for core SME operations like payroll as well as becoming a de facto SME banking partner beyond just fin tech POS solutions. Very exciting at the expanded TAM opportunity

Paycom - reasonable conviction, top 15 holding, highly valued - probably looking to transfer the holding into Square

Shopify - good conviction but not as strong as it was. Near term tailwinds - MJ legalisation in Canada and cost savings realisation from AWS move. Headwinds - declining growth rates and potential competition from native social commerce solutions within SNAP and Instagram. Actually the SP looks pretty strong right now so not selling but may trim after MJ day.

Talend, Twilio, Alteryx, Hubspot - all firm convictions but not adding nor trimming

New position intentions:-

ZS - would love to enter this but valuation is very high. Cyber security is hot right now and my other holdings up ~230% in Fortinet and Palo Alto as well as CyberArk up 78% are at all time highs and total a 6% position (or 7.5% with Okta) so ZS would add to this exposure unless I trimmed from existing holdings. If I buy ZS I won’t add to Okta.

Elastica (sp?) - very interested in the forthcoming IPO. If I buy this I won’t add to my MDB

Eventbrite - very interested in this since its IPO. Growth rates are great, need to understand the monetisation better and get more convinced about its TAM ($3bn apparently - so they have a 10% market share already).

Upland - am following and stalking these guys and would like to take a position

ServiceNow - these PAAS guys defy forecasted slowdowns everytime - growing consistently at 40$

Other left field intentions:-

I’d like to up my AfterPay Touch position in Australia - if you are excited by Square these guys will rock you.
I’m looking at a couple of fertility plays that are growing tremendously - Hamilton Thorne (Canada) NMC Health (UK).
I’d still like to get some ZTO and Baozun in China at the right price.



Interesting to see NTNX mentioned multiple times. I had been holding off on starting a position but am strongly considering now given the recent drop in price.

Appreciate your update, Ant. While international stocks are not part of the Saul’s Board universe, I’d be curious as to what you think is the “right” price for ZTO. I have been buying it over the past six months based on the company’s financials and what I thought was a fair price. But it continues to fall. I’m hoping this is due to trade war and currency problems rather than company issues. Would appreciate your thoughts (Bzoun too).


Guys - FWIW in case anyone out there is interested and to hold myself accountable, transparent and honest - I sold Paycom and invested 50/50 into Nutanix and Square.

HI Jackie - ZTO I would be happy buying at the price now. I’m just biding my time on China and especially shipping, haulage, logistics etc with the tariff war going on.

I’ve never been mad about the headline numbers of Baozun but I think it is coming good. I missed the mega run up but like it enough. I went right off JD so BZUN is next in line.

If I had more cash I would be buying both at these levels.


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