Invain
If it helps your thinking this is how I’m feeling about the Saul method stocks I am in or considering.
Current positions:-
Pure - a top 5 holding for me and keeping firm. Now profitable, high growth holding up. Very high conviction, no in intentions of selling any right now
Nutanix - One of my highest conviction stocks (top 5). We have turned the corner with hardware business model switchover, new products coming through and incredible growth rates continue - I have been adding to this position of late
The Trade Desk - Top 5 holding for me, very high conviction unless Amazon, Google and Facebook become walled gardens. Ultra high valuation, tempted to top slice on that in order to fund other purchases
Okta - 1.5% holding, reasonable conviction but not adding nor selling (see buying intentions)
MDB - 2% holding, high conviction but not adding nor selling (see buying intentions)
Square - Very high conviction - top 10 only hold 3.5%, interested in adding more given it is becoming a full service cloud partner for core SME operations like payroll as well as becoming a de facto SME banking partner beyond just fin tech POS solutions. Very exciting at the expanded TAM opportunity
Paycom - reasonable conviction, top 15 holding, highly valued - probably looking to transfer the holding into Square
Shopify - good conviction but not as strong as it was. Near term tailwinds - MJ legalisation in Canada and cost savings realisation from AWS move. Headwinds - declining growth rates and potential competition from native social commerce solutions within SNAP and Instagram. Actually the SP looks pretty strong right now so not selling but may trim after MJ day.
Talend, Twilio, Alteryx, Hubspot - all firm convictions but not adding nor trimming
New position intentions:-
ZS - would love to enter this but valuation is very high. Cyber security is hot right now and my other holdings up ~230% in Fortinet and Palo Alto as well as CyberArk up 78% are at all time highs and total a 6% position (or 7.5% with Okta) so ZS would add to this exposure unless I trimmed from existing holdings. If I buy ZS I won’t add to Okta.
Elastica (sp?) - very interested in the forthcoming IPO. If I buy this I won’t add to my MDB
Eventbrite - very interested in this since its IPO. Growth rates are great, need to understand the monetisation better and get more convinced about its TAM ($3bn apparently - so they have a 10% market share already).
Upland - am following and stalking these guys and would like to take a position
ServiceNow - these PAAS guys defy forecasted slowdowns everytime - growing consistently at 40$
Other left field intentions:-
I’d like to up my AfterPay Touch position in Australia - if you are excited by Square these guys will rock you.
I’m looking at a couple of fertility plays that are growing tremendously - Hamilton Thorne (Canada) NMC Health (UK).
I’d still like to get some ZTO and Baozun in China at the right price.
Ant