While a US recession could be mild, hopefully, the rest of the global powers may face a deeper slowdown. I would not go with a rise in oil consumption forecast in 2023.
So that might put oil in the $30-40 range.
DB2
No not $30 to 40.
But I am unsure where. As I am asking. Unfortunately the dynamics wont be clear by today’s market’s makeup.
Will be interesting to check back in a month.
Replaying to my own post here. Checking back after only a day, according to the Institute for Study of War’s daily update, Ukraine has started or is about to start an offensive in the south:
Ukrainian forces are likely preparing to launch or have launched a counteroffensive in Kherson Oblast as of July 23, but open-source visibility on the progress and tempo of the counteroffensive will likely be limited and lag behind events. Ukrainian Kherson Oblast Administration Adviser Serhiy Khlan stated on July 23 that Ukrainian forces have seized unspecified settlements in Kherson Oblast but called on Ukrainian civilians to remain silent on the progress of the counteroffensive until Ukrainian authorities release official statements.[1] Foreign Policy National Security Reporter Jack Detsch reported on July 22 that an unspecified senior US defense official stated that Ukrainian forces have recaptured unspecified “portions of Russian-occupied villages” in Kherson over the past week of July 15-22, indicating that Ukrainian forces have made some unspecified territorial advances along frontlines.[2]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offens…
And on topic for the thread (but probably not the board), in today’s NYT (soft paywall) there is an almost literally unbelievable story about the siege of the Azovstal steel plant.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/24/world/europe/ukraine-war-…
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While a US recession could be mild, hopefully, the rest of the global powers may face a deeper slowdown. I would not go with a rise in oil consumption forecast in 2023.
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So that might put oil in the $30-40 range.
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No, not $30 to 40.
Higher or lower?
DB2
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With HIMARS, the weapon isn’t the launcher, it’s the missiles. Going after the launcher is pretty pointless. There’s plenty more where that one came from.
The limiting factor is the ammunition. The US manufactured around 9000 missiles last year. That’s about 1500 salvos. One HIMARS can shoot a salvo approximately every 6 minutes. In other words, 10 HIMARS could fire the annual US missile production in a day.
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Russia is entirely reliant on its massive artillery force. This artillery in turn relies on a massive amount of logistical resupply. Russian logistics is entirely reliant on rail transport. Rail hubs are very vulnerable to HIMARS strikes.
Ever since HIMARS made its appearance, Russian artillery fire has shrunk to a small fraction of what it was previously.
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The US manufactured around 9000 missiles last year. That’s about 1500 salvos.
The US is sending only short-range stock to prevent the weapon from being used against the Russian Homeland. It is feared that if the US supplied Ukraine with weapons capable of damaging Russian infrastructure, we would be crossing a red line and become an active participant (target) in the war.
How many of the missiles have been manufactured to-date (not just last year), how many of those have been of the short-range flavor and how many have been spent since manufacture - as well as what the maximum run-rate of replacement and stock required to be retained by US forces are metrics required to determine how many “shots” are available to Ukraine over the short term (as well as graphing resupply).
Jeff
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Hi Jeff,
I thought I would come back to the Fool for a while. You still provide good info. But most of the old Fools here are as dumb as ever.
Oh well, I will give it a shot. I am retired now with nothing but time and my good looks.
Andy
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The Russians have been shooting 50,000-60,000 per day for last several months. US (and NATO) have nothing to compete with that.
Not really. Unless you count the fact that there are a hell of a lot less Ukrainians to shoot at today.
I gotta remember how to post here with these non-threaded threads.
I gotta remember how to post here with these non-threaded threads.
It helps to include what you’re responding to. [see above]
DB2
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It helps to include what you’re responding to. [see above]
Thanks, Dr. Bob
One of the not so deep secrets was that while the Soviets were reputed to have 40,000 tanks, they didn’t have anywhere near enough trucks and trained drivers to haul the fuel to keep them moving. Their plan was to overrun NATO fuel and ammo stores. Of course we knew that and the mantra was to not leave a drop of fuel for them. The T-62 was a main battle tank (up graded T-55) back then.
Anymouse <retired old former soldier … ASW aircrew, navy helicopter AESOp oh and trained military switch action programmer on the NATO AWACs before moving to civilian Logistics programmer at a silly high tax free salary>
Well … that one was popular.
Another interesting Cold War story. The Russians knew we were planning to blow all the bridges … We practiced the technique often and we first responders had cases of C4 and lots of Det Cord in the back of the APCs should one of our BUG Outs turn out to be the real thing (they didn’t inform us until we were in our designated blocking location).
The Russians came up with the clever idea to build a version of the T-55 with a snorkel kit that could cross the river driving on the bottom … up to 5 meters deep.
Generally it was a failure as it often sprung leaks drowning the crew and tank. Well waste not want not so they gave those ones to the Hungarian army … seriously!
Tim
https://www.armyrecognition.com/russia_russian_army_tank_hea…
… The tank can ford a maximum depth of 1.4 m without preparation and up to 5 m with a deep fording kit which consists of a snorkel mounted over the loader’s hatch cover. These snorkels take between 15 and 30 minutes to fit and on reaching the far bank are blown off. The operational snorkel is mounted over the loader’s periscope and, when not fitted, is carried disassembled at the rear of the turret, or at the rear of the hull.
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Ukraine will receive ground-launched, small diameter bombs (GLSDB) as part of a new $2.17 billion aid package announced by the Biden administration. The munitions have a range of roughly 95 miles, nearly twice the capability previously provided by the U.S. government, which has until now refused to supply such weapons for fear that Ukrainian forces will use them to strike inside Russia. This will enable them instead to target command posts, ammunition depots and other Russian military facilities in occupied parts of Ukraine.
Ukrainian commanders have said that, while their troops have proved effective at destroying such targets, Russia has adapted by moving its important infrastructure outside the range of U.S.-provided rocket artillery vehicles, like the HIMARS and M270, necessitating greater reach. The small diameter bombs were designed to be fired from aircraft but have been adapted with rocket motors to launch from such systems. They can strike their intended targets within the radius of a car tire, according to Saab, which developed the program with Boeing.
DB2
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The news mentioned that last night. Because this is a modified product, not one in US inventory, they, like the M-1s, need to be manufactured, meaning months of delays. That is two out of two “escalatory” systems that will not be deployed for months, or a year. That seems to add to my thinking that these systems are intentionally being delayed, in the hope that the war goes away in the interim.
Steve
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Your reasoning is flawed. Ukraine has the backing of the US and EU. Size does not matter - weapons is what matters. US and EU will not let Russia win this war. Russian fossil fuels are not starving Europe. In fact the speed of the European energy transition away from Russia fossil fuels is amazing. Russian economy is suffering from lack of European goods and money.
Size does not matter. A punk with an AR-15 can kill many strong men. The Russian people are not united in supporting this war and most would rather run away than fight. Currently most Russian people are not engaged in thinking about this war in the major cities in northern Russia. They are still believing the Putin propaganda that US an EU are causing their economic problems.
Read the following:
Vladimir Putin insists Russians and Ukrainians are “one people” but his brutal invasion of Ukraine has revealed a remarkable lack of “brotherly” Russian empathy for Ukrainians. While many people in other former Soviet republics have identified with Ukraine’s suffering, relatively few Russian citizens have shown any sign of compassion or remorse for the genocidal violence being perpetrated in their name.
According to research conducted by Russia’s internationally respected independent pollster, the Levada Center, Russian public support for the war remained above 70% throughout 2022. Speaking to Germany publication Der Spiegel in early 2023, Levada Center scientific director Lev Gudkov observed that mounting evidence of the atrocities taking place in Ukraine had made virtually no impact on Russian public opinion. “The Russians have little compassion for the Ukrainians. Almost no one here talks about the fact that people are being killed in Ukraine.”
Much of the available evidence supports these poll findings and points to a remarkable absence of empathy. Millions of Ukrainians have friends and family in Russia. Many report being shocked by the lack of compassion they have encountered since the start of the invasion. Rather than sympathy or concern, they have been confronted by cold indifference, outright denials, or pro-Kremlin propaganda tropes.
The hundreds of thousands of Russians who fled the country over the past year have not staged any major anti-war rallies while in exile, despite no longer being subject to draconian Kremlin restrictions. Inside Russia itself, there have been no significant protests since the first weeks of the war. The contrast provided by mass anti-government rallies over the past twelve months in other repressive dictatorships such as China and Iran has cast the silence of the Russian population in an even more unfavorable light.
This apparent lack of empathy for the victims of Russian imperial aggression is nothing new. Many Russians displayed similar attitudes toward the two Chechen wars of the early post-Soviet era and the 2008 invasion of Georgia. More recently, the 2014 invasion of Crimea was widely cheered and remains arguably the most popular single event of Putin’s entire 23-year reign. Such thinking reflects the unapologetically imperial identity which the Russian Federation inherited from the Soviet and Czarist eras.
Zeihan has talked about the Russian approach. It has always fought wars in this fashion. It has works out for them a fair amount of the time. Unfortunately now Russia has a demographic issue. But so do the Ukrainians. Western equipment has allowed the Ukrainians to kill more Russian troops than they lose. But can the Ukrainians kill enough Russian troops to deter Russia? Or will the Russians finally grind down the Ukrainian army? That is what we are in the process of learning. And if the tide turns against the Ukrainians how much more will the West supply? Aircraft? Long range missiles? And what will be the Russian response to the West’s escalation.
The situation seems similar to the US war on inflation. On a tightrope inching up rates/military equipment to stop the threat but not crash the US economy/cause WW3.
Unfortunately for whom? If it’s for the Russians then I would turn it around and say, “Fortunately Russia has a demographic issue.” 
You are missing an important factor, not all members of the Russian Federation love Russia, already there are Chechens fighting with Ukraine. A weakened Russia might lead to more defections.
One thing is certain about wars, no one knows how they will end.
The Captain
The Russians.
You are missing an important factor, not all members of the Russian Federation love Russia
[quote=“captainccs, post:39, topic:72713, full:true”]
And neither do all Ukrainians love Ukraine. There is a significant number ethnic Russians in West Ukraine. They are 15-20% of the population of Ukraine.
And like in Russia thousands of Ukrainans fled to avoid military service.
As you say no one knows how the war will end. And morality of who is right does not enter the equation. It is about the determination of a leader and the control of his population. Ho Chi Minh was willing to depopulate North Vietnam of all young men in the war. After the TET offensive the US population lost their stomach for the conflict. A democracy has to listen to their citizenry eventually. Not so in an authoritarian country.
On February 19th Americans will gather in Washington DC to protest and demand “Not One More Penny for war in Ukraine.” It will be interesting to see how many people will show up & if the protest will be covered by the Main Stream Media. The MSM certainly haven’t reported on the impending protest.