HIMARS

www.scmp.com/news/world/europe/article/3185635/medvedev-warn…
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu has ordered generals to prioritize destroying Ukraine’s long-range missile and artillery weapons after Western-supplied weapons were used to strike Russian supply lines…Ukraine says it has carried out a string of successful strikes on 30 Russian logistics and ammunitions hubs, using several multiple launch rocket systems recently supplied by the West…

Military analysts say locating and destroying a HIMARS system is a challenging task. The M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System is an agile wheel-mounted launcher of 227mm [9in] GPS-guided missiles with a range of around 80km (50 miles)…

Unlike other multiple launch rocket systems that both sides have used in the war, HIMARS missiles can be directed precisely on targets, meaning they can be used sparingly and reliably. The first four launchers, which can carry six rockets at a time, were delivered in June; now the Ukrainians have 12, with hundreds of rockets to use between them.

DB2

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I have said for many years that the U.S. always has to have a war simmering somewhere to keep the military-industrial complex functioning because it’s hard to start it up from scratch in case a major war starts.

How much more efficient to have a foreign country doing the job so U.S. troops don’t have to be sacrified.

The Ukrainians are competently using HIMARS. An excellent field test against a competent enemy, the Russian army. Who could ask for more?

Wendy

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The Ukrainians are competently using HIMARS. An excellent field test against a competent enemy, the Russian army. Who could ask for more?

I wonder how ‘competent’ the Russian army is. One of the weaknesses of the Russian army is that soldiers are not allowed to use their initiative. Dictatorships fear people with initiative. You have to wonder how many Audi Murphys the Russians have. What they have a lot of is Political Kommissars who can overrule military commands.

The Ukraine war has demonstrated that the Russian Army relies on a massive meat grinder approach, not just enemy meat but their own young who are expendable. America tried a bodybag war in Vietnam and that didn’t work out either.

The Captain

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America tried a bodybag war in Vietnam and that didn’t work out either.

The Captain

Trouble was … as with the Afghans, the Vietnamese had no other place to go … so they stayed?

Trouble was … as with the Afghans, the Vietnamese had no other place to go … so they stayed?

Well, The NVA could have gone back to North Vietnam.

DB2

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Well, The NVA could have gone back to North Vietnam.

DB2

They were busy invading South Vietnam then got into tiffs with other neighbours including China … then there was the Cambodia civil war thingy.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Vietnamese_War

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cambodian_Civil_War

Eventually things got quiet … Chinese troops went home and started working on a real (more modern and professional) military force.

Professional military forces are expensive … especially when you try to include large numbers along with high quality equipment and lots of really good training?

I don’t think that story has been written yet?

Tim

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Ukraine HIMARS Destroy More Than 100 ‘High Value’ Russian Targets
www.newsweek.com/ukraine-himars-destroy-high-value-russian-t…
Ukraine has successfully used High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) to take out more than 100 “high value” Russian targets including ammunition depots, long-range artillery positions, command posts, air-defense sites and radar and communications nodes, a senior U.S. defense official told reporters…

Additionally, the official said that Ukraine has managed to take out “hundreds” of colonels, “many” generals and “thousands” of lieutenants and captains.

“They can’t keep it up forever,” the official said of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. “They have expended a lot of their smarter munitions…Their capabilities are getting dumber.”

DB2

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I hope it is all true. It is believable.

david fb

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I hope it is all true. It is believable.

Very good as long as they can protect them from air strikes. The version given to the Ukrainians has a 50-mile range and an accuracy of +/- 10 feet. Shoot and scoot.

DB2

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An excellent field test against a competent enemy, the Russian army.

Deadly? Yes.

Competent? Not so sure.

Or as one TV analyst said a while back:

Russia was considered the 2nd best army in the world. Now they’re considered the 2nd best army in Ukraine.

AW

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Russia was considered the 2nd best army in the world. Now they’re considered the 2nd best army in Ukraine.


They haven’t been considered the 2nd best army in the world since the 1940’s. The best army in Ukraine is the one that remains standing at thee end of the war. Back in my speckled youth, I had a discussion with the 6 foot eight inch 300 pound New York State judo champion. He explained to me that, while it was true that a 97 pound weakling who knew judo could likely beat one who didn’t, size matters and they wouldn’t fare well against him in the long run.

Even if, on a man for man basis, the Ukrainian army is more motivated, better trained, better led etc. than the Russian army, in a war of attrition, especially when the Russians can “punish” Ukraine for their actions beyond the scope that Russia has defined as the area of conflict, it’s hard to imagine Ukraine defeating the Russians. In an environment when central Europe will potentially be starved for Russian gas this winter, the leverage that Russia can wield in negotiations may be amplified.

Russia’s minimum condition to cease hostilities would be to retain the Crimea and enough formerly Ukrainian land to protect it and Ukraine’s minimum will be to get it all back. As long as they don’t agree, Ukraine will try to take the momentum away from Russia by “innovative” attacks - each of which will be used as an excuse for Russia to use the Ukrainian cities as if they were target practice in a shooting gallery.

Jeff

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He explained to me that, while it was true that a 97 pound weakling who knew judo could likely beat one who didn’t, size matters and they wouldn’t fare well against him in the long run.

How did that work out in 1776? Or, for that matter, on April 30, 1975?

The bigger they are, the harder they fall.

AW

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How did that work out in 1776? Or, for that matter, on April 30, 1975?


In neither case was the winner physically adjacent to the loser. In both cases, the winner was supported by a “super power” of the same order of magnitude in size as the loser (France, Russia/China)

A better choice would have been February 15, 1989, when the Soviet Union left Afghanistan.

I would point out that, in all three cases, the “occupation” took decades to address (including the two decades the US spent in Afghanistan ending in Afghanistan on 30 August 2021 and the nearly two decades US troops occupied Iraq before completely withdrawing). The challenges with dealing with a stronger nation which annexes your territory can be easily seen in the last 60 years of relations between Israel and the Palestinian authorities - not to mention the vast tract of what is now the US which we annexed from previously Mexican territory a century and a half ago. Europe is full of names belonging to other culture; France has Flemish names in the Northeast, Norse in the northwest and German in the east, Poland has German names in the north and Russian in the east, Greece has Turkish names and everyone has Roman names.

Can Ukraine “win” the war? Probably not on its own and possibly with the aid of others. Russia has little to fear that Ukraine will physically damage its infrastructure, but by the time this is over, Ukraine’s will be in shambles.

Time will tell how this will end.

Jeff

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In an environment when central Europe will potentially be starved for Russian gas this winter, the leverage that Russia can wield in negotiations may be amplified.

The leverage swings both ways. Europe is by far Russia’s largest natural gas market and developing new markets could take years. Yet, Europe imports less than half its gas from Russia. Who needs who the most in that arrangement? Russia is still selling plenty of oil to India and China, but at a big discount and Russia is high cost producer. There are indications Russia is about to tap its sovereign wealth fund which means Putin is running short on cash.

In the meantime, while Russia has enormous stockpiles of military equipment, it is losing that equipment at an astonishing rate. 1960s vintage T-62 tanks are appearing on the battlefield which means Russia is already scraping the bottom of the barrel, at least tank-wise. Also the UK reported Russia is using anti-aircraft missiles in ground attack roles. Another indication of a shortage. Similarly, the BBC reported new recruits are being sent into battle with as little as three to seven days training. This weekend, US officials estimated about 85% of the Russian military is committed to Ukraine. Probably not a lot of gas left in Russia’s tank.

Ukraine on the other hand, has also taken big losses but is being resupplied by the west with good quality weapons. Just today, the U.S. announced it was delivering four more HIMARS for a total of 16, along with 580 more Phoenix Ghost drones. Allies have also provided rocket artillery. Thousands of new recruits are being trained in the UK and Poland by western instructors.

In short, I don’t think Putin’s negotiating position is very strong, and looks to be getting weaker. Will be interesting to check back in a month.

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Russian NG or Oil if sold anywhere puts downward pressure on the markets. Russia has to sell. May be not to the EU entirely.

Russia is loosing a lot of money right now. Not entirely on NG and oil but in the war.

Can Russia borrow? Not really. They need to sell their resources. Screwing around as they are is just sending people elsewhere pissed off.

The cost of WTIC has dropped again taking of last week’s premium that had been based on the Gazprom news. I get it was a nothing at the end of the day. I hope that is not lost on Putin.

Oil still has a premium to lose. I have not yet thought of where the bottom is.

Any ideas out there how low oil goes?

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Or, for that matter, on April 30, 1975?

There was no political desire to win that war.

The Captain

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Or, for that matter, on April 30, 1975?

There was no political desire to win that war.

In fact, the US government’s official goal for that war was a draw.

Between that stupidity and systematically under-representing the other side’s capabilities to a progressively greater degree…

… and the beginnings of hate-America-first press coverage in the US media…

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Oil still has a premium to lose. I have not yet thought of where the bottom is. Any ideas out there how low oil goes?

You can put a range on it, from pre-war levels down to the US cost of production. Before the war oil was about $80-90/barrel. That would need to be adjusted some for inflation. Cost of production in the first quarter was about $30.
www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=53140

Global oil consumption this year is less than a percent lower than production. Projections for next year have consumption rising to meet or slightly exceed production which would make the higher price target more likely. A global recession would favor the lower price.
www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/global_oil.php

DB2

syke6: Another indication of a shortage. Similarly, the BBC reported new recruits are being sent into battle with as little as three to seven days training. This weekend, US officials estimated about 85% of the Russian military is committed to Ukraine. Probably not a lot of gas left in Russia’s tank.

During the Chechen War they would sometimes get 4 hours of training and be allowed to fire 5-8 bullets from their assault rifle before helicopters arrived to dump the dead Russian soldiers and load the recruits up for the trip to the front line.

Basically meat for the meat grinder.

My basic training was 20 weeks followed by another six weeks of LI (Leading Infantry) training for those of us going to infantry units. Once actually in my unit (2nd Battalion RCR in Soest Germany) the training continued with regular exercises and platoon or company level training.

I loaded up on specialist courses in Canada before I turned 18 (done to keep me and 3 other 17 yo soldiers busy) and was allowed to join my unit in Germany. Included Machineguns, Mortars, Infantry Signals (radio) and APC driver mech. I had them talked into sending me on Para course until a young subbie showed up and swiped my spot …!

One of the not so deep secrets was that while the Soviets were reputed to have 40,000 tanks, they didn’t have anywhere near enough trucks and trained drivers to haul the fuel to keep them moving. Their plan was to overrun NATO fuel and ammo stores. Of course we knew that and the mantra was to not leave a drop of fuel for them. The T-62 was a main battle tank (up graded T-55) back then.

Anymouse <retired old former soldier … ASW aircrew, navy helicopter AESOp oh and trained military switch action programmer on the NATO AWACs before moving to civilian Logistics programmer at a silly high tax free salary>

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DB2,

While a US recession could be mild, hopefully, the rest of the global powers may face a deeper slowdown. I would not go with a rise in oil consumption forecast in 2023.