OK, we usually don’t post about stock price, but something looks concerning today with HIMS. Trading down over 17% at present.
The only news items I could find are that an insider sold $10+M and they announced the acquisition of a US based peptide company. They report 4Q24 and annual results on Monday. Maybe a large insider sale just before earnings is being taken as a signal? Whether or not it’s legal, it doesn’t look good.
Does anyone have any idea about what’s going on?
The FDA website indicated that the shortage of Novo Nordisk’s Ozempic and Wegovy has ended. The announcement is bad news for Hims & Hers, a compounding pharmacy that makes a knockoff version of Wegovy
I asked Grok and he answered:
“Hims & Hers Health, Inc. (HIMS) stock is down today, February 21, 2025, primarily due to a report from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) indicating that the shortage of Ozempic and Wegovy—brand-name GLP-1 weight loss drugs—has been resolved. This development is significant for Hims & Hers because the company has been offering compounded versions of semaglutide (the active ingredient in Ozempic and Wegovy) to meet demand during the shortage. With the FDA stating that the shortage is over, the ability of Hims & Hers to legally provide these compounded alternatives may be restricted, as compounding is typically allowed only during shortages. This news has likely raised concerns among investors about a potential impact on the company’s revenue, given that GLP-1 products have been a key growth driver.”
Personally I will wait next week for the earnings for more clarifications. And the comments of the long term holders, roaming here.
HIMS is 10.4% in my portfolio.
MV
CNBC reported that the shortage of Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy and Ozempic drugs is resolved
$HIMS has been pounding the table for some time now that their weight loss offerings can survive a declared end to GLP-1 shortage:
To build on what @intjudo said, HIMS is also not just a short term GLP investment. It’s a disruptor in the healthcare space broadly. Pay attention to the moves they have been making the last few months: they also launched a nutrition service, a health collective, and purchased an at-home lab testing company.
Their ambitions are far greater than any one drug, they are looking to create a next-generation health services company. And that’s also why they took a big shot at the rest of the industry in the Super Bowl. From a marketer’s perspective, they are doing everything right to grow for the long term.
What percentage of HIMS sales/profits come from their versions of the drugs that are no longer on “shortage”?
They don’t provide a breakdown of revenue by product/service. I’m sure they track this internally, but they’ve made a decision that they don’t wish to share it with the stockholders - or anyone else for that matter. Personally, if I were an officer I too would vote for keeping this information proprietary. What possible benefit would be derived from publicly sharing it?
HIMS is up 71% over the last month and 110% YTD even at the current price. The market sells off the company heavily on any news regarding GLP shortage resolutions.
Using the term “knockoff” in the article is a fairly disingenuous word choice from the article as HIMS meets all the FDA standards for compounding and complying with cGMP good manufacturing processes. The company works directly with the FDA. This company is a threat to Novo and Lilly’s businesses as it makes it a lot easier to get the medications without going through a doctor who may want to treat only obese patients with these medications.
The CEO has detailed multiple times that they sell brand name Ozempic and Wegovy already through the app. Brand names for GLPs are much more expensive, so this news primarily effects the compounded GLPs that Hims makes.
My own take is the market has trouble finding an appropriate valuation for a tele-health company growing 77% and projecting even higher growth rates as profitability is going up. That’s basically unseen before in the marketplace.
The other day HIMS was up over 20% when they announced they had an at home testing kit, which is like a blood test that requires no needle but uses a “blood lancet”.
@wpr101 I think you’ve nailed it. The market doesn’t have any idea what the company is worth or how to go about measuring it. So we get an overreaction with just about any news that seems like it might impact their revenue. And your observation that all along they have also carried the branded weight loss products should some customer prefer that. It’s not like we do compounding, take it or leave it. It’s more like we can serve your needs and preferences.
AppLovin is in a similar spot. There has never been an advertising company that provided guaranteed ROAS (return on advertising spend). And the more customers that use their service to place ads, the smarter the AI engine gets thereby allowing them the ability to guarantee ever increasing spend. So how do you put a price tag on that?